101
560
1.2k
2025
34%
chance

If anything, support and trust in Russian President Vladimir Putin has increased since the war in Ukraine started at the end of February 2022.

According to the independent Levada Center polling agency, 81% of Russians surveyed in January 2022 said they approve of Putin’s actions as president. In January 2023 it was 82% and in December 2023 it was 83%

This market will resolve to YES, if in any month of 2024, survey indicates Putin's approval rating lower than 80%.

[PS regardless of any methodology change]


resolution: Levada Center, https://www.levada.ru/en/ratings/

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bought Ṁ10 of YES

@itsTomekK wrong closing date?

predicts YES

@Lion thanks!

predicts YES

Most people who don't approve Putin simply don't answer these polls (hang up the phone) or lie in them. Actual support is much lower.

Levada Center polling agency's independence is questionable at best.

predicts YES

Both this and https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-putins-approval-in-russia-fall-164a6b6812d4 close at the end of January - shouldn't it be next January instead?

bought Ṁ50 of YES

Looking at the timing of sudden spikes, it seems like ~20% of respondents only approve of Putin when he's invading something. Makes u think

predicts NO

@pietrokc do not confuse these numbers with actual approval! Many people will say they approve of whatever when it's increasingly dangerous to say otherwise.

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