Will Gemini be insolvent by the end of 2024?
5
14
110
Dec 31
43%
chance

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gemini withdrawals for USDC, BTC and/or ETH are suspended for a majority of users for at least 7 full days by Dec 31, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET. If a consensus of credible reporting states that Gemini is insolvent by Dec 31, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET this market will also resolve to “Yes.”

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Coinbase withdrawals being suspended for a majority of users means that a majority users are unable to withdraw their USDC, BTC and/or ETH, from Gemini.

If Gemini suspends withdrawals on a day in the last week of December (e.gGemini halts token withdrawals on December 30, 2024, 4 PM ET), this market will not resolve until either: 1) withdrawals are reenabled before 7 full days pass, resulting in a "No" resolution; 2) 7 full days pass (Dec 30 - Jan 6, 2025, 4 PM ET) where withdrawals are suspended, resulting in a "Yes" resolution.

This market will resolve according to official information released by Gemini, the leadership of Gemini, and/or official representatives of Gemini (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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