September 1st Open: $25,927
vs
September 30th Close... resolves based on Coingecko Historical Data
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin/historical_data#panel
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ869 | |
| 2 | Ṁ593 | |
| 3 | Ṁ263 | |
| 4 | Ṁ169 | |
| 5 | Ṁ168 |
It was a nice market, let's get another one:
https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-bitcoin-btc-close-october-high
@mistersplice This is interesting research, thanks.
But 86,000 bitcoins is nothing compared to the number of bitcoins held by Mt. Gox, Celsius, Genesis, the wind-down debtor of Voyager, and the US Marshals Service. I believe those total more than 350,000.
I know that I plan to liquidate hundreds of bitcoins (or whatever is left) that I get paid out from those estates and wash my hands of this. I can't possibly be the only one. We know the Voyager estate has already paid out the people who want coins, so everything that's left will be 100% liquidated. We also know that the GBTC fund is fighting hard to become an ETF, and it is trading 30% below NAV, so that's hundreds of thousands more bitcoins that will be liquidated to pay out the 30% of people who redeem GBTC upon ETF conversion. We also can infer that there is no demand for new ETFs; if there were, the GBTC fund would be trading at par.
The sell pressure will easily overwhelm the halving.
Now, as to this market, I may have made a mistake because I forgot at the time of betting that a backtested strategy that returned 40% over the past few years is to buy 3 days before the end of the month and sell three days after the start, and it's very strong if the end of the month occurs on a weekend, when prices are typically lower than on Mondays and Tuesdays. I'm confident in mid-October that my position will be vindicated, but I might want to sell out here.
This is going to be very close. The 1h chart clearly shows a downtrend and many bearish divergences, but it seems like these support levels keep getting defended by people who continually lose money when they eventually break. Whether they are able to hold out long enough to last out the weekend will be interesting.
@mistersplice If you never owned any bitcoins, then you are light years ahead of all of us.
Stick to nVIDIA stock. If you had owned it instead of bitcoin, you would have made a lot more.
@SteveSokolowski I believe you are making a huge mistake by shunning bitcoin.
and stocks are not the way
@mistersplice I don't. Bitcoin had its time and that time is over.
Now, things could clearly have turned out differently. if the FBI actually indicted anyone involved in the fraudulent lenders, and had filed criminal charges against some of the token issuers that simply stole money, and if the IRS jailed mining firms that weren't issuing 1099-NEC forms, then legitimate business would have taken place.
As it stands, bitcoin became a haven for criminals because the government allowed it to be. That's why I considered myself a Democrat but will do what I can to get rid of Biden; he's directly responsible for allowing bitcoin to turn solely into a place for criminals.
@SteveSokolowski you’re 1000% wrong and you will regret it in the future, but that’s just my opinion 😅
@mistersplice I'll give you that I may be wrong on bitcoin.
I won't give you that I'll regret it in the future. I found a 73% CAGR strategy with S&P 500 stocks. BTC will never achieve that level of returns.
@SteveSokolowski the stock market, which relies on our inflationary economic system, requires constant growth and is therefore unsustainable. it can't keep growing forever and at some point everything will come crashing down.
I would recommend reading this book before you sell any bitcoin:
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/50157837-the-price-of-tomorrow
