International affairs 2023: Turkey and Hungary approve the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO?
146
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resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.


Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.

Recently he made many predictions on international affairs, published on
https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023:


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predicted NO

This can resolve NO.

predicted NO

Is this market about the vote in Parliament, about Presidential assent, or about the deposit of instruments of ratification? For the actual process, it is the deposit that counts, and some countries have taken nearly two months between the parliamentary vote and the actual ratification.

predicted YES

@BrunoParga I don't know how Matt will count it - looks like the last process of it counts - deposit, right?

Even if Sweden clears the way for Turkey to enter the EU, Hungary's xenophobes won't. Sabotaging Sweden's NATO bid would be an excellent way for Hungary to throw a wrench in that whole deal.

@SemioticRivalry Ah, yes, I'm sure Orban would never lie about anything ever. Such a trustworthy guy.

predicted YES

@Lorxus My model of world leaders doesn't include them making obviously verifiable lies to other world leaders in back-room negotiations for no reason. Besides, Orban approved Finland's accession.

predicted YES

@SemioticRivalry

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-11/hungary-backs-sweden-s-nato-accession-foreign-minister-says#xj4y7vzkg

Hungary Backs Sweden’s NATO Accession, Foreign Minister Says


"Hungary supports Sweden’s NATO accession and it remains a purely “technical matter” to close the lengthy ratification process in the parliament in Budapest, Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said Tuesday."

predicted NO

mfs really be out here betting with the world's most boringly wrong man instead of paying heed to my beautiful map

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-sweden-join-nato-by-the-end-of#EPtk0FmbjlsIhsIy62wE