If anything, support and trust in Russian President Vladimir Putin has increased since the war in Ukraine started at the end of February 2022.
According to the independent Levada Center polling agency, 81% of Russians surveyed in January 2023 said they approve of Putin’s actions as president.
Will Putin's approval increase in the next, February edition of the survey?
This market will resolve to YES, if February 2023 survey indicates Putin's approval rating higher than 82%
resolution: Levada Center, https://www.levada.ru/en/ratings/
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Russia and Ukraine will form the Union State before January 1 2027.
A rough timeline will be as follows-
2024: continuation of indecisive clashes.
2025: Poland receives 250 Abrams. Ukraine agrees to talks and advances into luhansk. Crimea never falls.
2026: russia and Ukraine form a union and Russia and possibly Belarus collapse. Transistra goes to Ukraine.
2027 and later: capitalism collapses and eastern Europe is consumed with border disputes. Microstates of gibraltar, monaco, marino, montenegro, Vatican, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, andorra and Singapore are absorbed into the largest neighbor. Taiwan is bombarded and not invaded and surrenders. After foreign aid no government exists in Africa. Israel is destroyed. All russian proxies except Crimea collapse. I get banned for antisemitism.
