Tomek K 🟡's calibration
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Tomek K 🟡 bet YES at x%, the market resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
10 largest bets for each bucket
3%
5%
10%
- Will Sam Bankman-Fried attend Maxine Water's Congressional hearing?NOṀ35
- 2022 FIFA World Cup: Will Belgium play in kits with the word "LOVE"?NOṀ30
- Will Nexo become insolvent by the end of the year?NOṀ25
- "Bivalve aquaculture" by Brian LuiNOṀ10
- Will Sam Bankman-Fried attend Maxine Water's Congressional hearing?NOṀ10
- Will England Win the 2022 World Cup?NOṀ10
- Will the Google Pixel 7 launch price increase compared to the Pixel 6 in the US?NOṀ10
- Will the Google Pixel 7 launch price increase compared to the Pixel 6 in the US?NOṀ10
- Will England Win the 2022 World Cup?NOṀ10
- Will 'Mastodon' go up in US Google Trends?NOṀ10
20%
- January 2023: Will Bitcoin hit $20,000?YESṀ333
- Will Lex Fridman create a market on Manifold by the end of 2022?NOṀ15
- Will FED pivot by Q1 2023?NOṀ15
- Will Donald Trump follow 100 people on Twitter by the end of the year?NOṀ10
- Will we fund "Brain-inspired AGI"?NOṀ10
- Will Nexo become insolvent by the end of the year?NOṀ10
- Will Tesla (TSLA) stock end the year at or above $700/share?NOṀ10
- January 2023: Will Bitcoin hit $20,000?YESṀ10
- January 2023: Will Bitcoin hit $20,000?YESṀ10
- Will Messi win again the best player on FIFA world cup?YESṀ10
30%
- Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2022?NOṀ666
- Will Qatar score the first goal of the 2022 FIFA World Cup?NOṀ167
- Will Harry Maguire score a goal at the 2022 FIFA World Cup?NOṀ100
- Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2022?NOṀ100
- Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2022?NOṀ100
- Will Joe Biden visit Ukraine in 2023?YESṀ50
- Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2022?NOṀ40
- Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2022?NOṀ25
- Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2022?NOṀ25
- Will Avraham Eisenberg attempt "a profitable trade" against Aave?YESṀ15
40%
- Will there be more traders who hold YES shares than NO shares on this market?YESṀ50
- Will The Respect for Marriage Act pass US Senate on the first vote?YESṀ36
- Will 538 beat Polymarket on midterms predictions?YESṀ25
- Will any national team captain wear a "One Love" armband at the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar?NOṀ20
- Will Elizabeth Holmes be sentenced to more than 10 years in prison?YESṀ10
- Will Bitcoin's price peak above $17,500 by the end of January?YESṀ10
- 2022 FIFA World Cup: Will any game get cancelled, postponed or given w.o.?NOṀ10
- Will President Biden declare National Emergency on climate before September?NOṀ10
- Will Alameda Research declare bankruptcy before the end of 2022?YESṀ10
- Will SBF be charged before Trump?YESṀ10
50%
- Will Russia begin a new wave of mobilisation during January 2023?NOṀ1,000
- Will Donald Trump announce he is running for president by November 15?YESṀ146
- Will Donald Trump announce he is running for president by November 15?YESṀ100
- Will Donald Trump announce he is running for president by November 15?YESṀ100
- Will Russia begin a new wave of mobilisation during January 2023?NOṀ90
- Will 'Avatar: The Way of Water' gross more than $175 million domestically on its opening weekend?NOṀ75
- Will the price chart of this market cross 50% even number of times before January 1, 2023?YESṀ40
- Will Harry Maguire score a goal at the 2022 FIFA World Cup?NOṀ35
- Will the United States make it through to the Round of 16 in the 2022 FIFA World Cup?YESṀ20
- Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2022?NOṀ20
60%
- February 2023: Will Russia lose more than 150,000 troops?NOṀ2,000
- 11. Will Gamestop’s stock price still be above $100 at the end of 2022?NOṀ340
- January 2023: Will weekly jobless initial claims exceed 220,000?NOṀ222
- Will Bitcoin close the year above $15,000?YESṀ200
- Will 'Avatar: The Way of Water' gross more than $175 million domestically on its opening weekend?NOṀ200
- Will Bitcoin's price peak above $17,500 by the end of January?YESṀ111
- Will a Forward-Forward neural network implementation be publicly available before Jan 7th 2023?NOṀ111
- War in Ukraine: Will Russia lose 100,000 troops by the end of 2022?YESṀ100
- Will Messi win again the best player on FIFA world cup?YESṀ75
- Will 'Avatar: The Way of Water' gross more than $650 million domestically by January 31, 2023?NOṀ75
70%
- Will Russia begin a new wave of mobilisation during January 2023?NOṀ1,111
- War in Ukraine: Will Russia lose 100,000 troops by the end of 2022?YESṀ555
- Will Bitcoin's price peak above $17,500 by the end of January?YESṀ333
- Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2022?NOṀ152
- Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?NOṀ111
- Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?NOṀ111
- Will this market's probability be at least 69% for at least 69% of the time it remains open?NOṀ111
- Will Donald Trump announce he is running for president by November 15?YESṀ100
- Will Zelenskyy admit that it was UKRAINIAN missiles that hit Poland?NOṀ75
- 2023: Will Bitcoin reach $20,000?YESṀ40
80%
- Will Russia begin a new wave of mobilisation by March 1, 2023?NOṀ1,000
- Will Elon Musk name a new non-interim CEO of Twitter in 2022?NOṀ500
- Will a team from the AFC, CAF or CONCACAF make it to the quarterfinals of the 2022 World Cup?YESṀ500
- Will Donald Trump's Twitter account be reinstated by the end of 2022YESṀ404
- Will Elon Musk name a new non-interim CEO of Twitter in 2022?NOṀ400
- Will Meta have a higher market cap than Tesla at the end of January 2023?NOṀ111
- February 2023: Will Joe Biden visit Poland?YESṀ100
- Will The Respect for Marriage Act pass US Senate on the first vote?YESṀ100
- Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan be the President of Turkey on January 1, 2023?YESṀ100
- January 2023: Will this market have less than 50 unique traders?YESṀ100
90%
- Will a team from the AFC, CAF or CONCACAF make it to the quarterfinals of the 2022 World Cup?YESṀ589
- Will Bitcoin (BTC/USD) weekly candle be positive on the launch day of Artemis I?YESṀ505
- Will Ecuador score the first goal of the 2022 FIFA World Cup?YESṀ500
- Will I be on Lex Fridman's podcast in 2023?YESṀ444
- Will Argentina beat Australia in the Round of 16?YESṀ333
- Will The Respect for Marriage Act pass US Senate on the first vote?YESṀ300
- 11. Will Gamestop’s stock price still be above $100 at the end of 2022?NOṀ300
- 2023: Will Bitcoin reach $20,000?YESṀ222
- Will 'Spare: by Prince Harry, The Duke of Sussex' rank #1 on The New York Times Best Sellers?YESṀ222
- Will Bitcoin price fall under $15K in 2022?NOṀ200
95%
- Will Argentina win against Poland at the 2022 FIFA World Cup?YESṀ1,000
- Will Ecuador score the first goal of the 2022 FIFA World Cup?YESṀ1,000
- Will Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?YESṀ800
- Will Ethereum be "ultrasound" at the end of November?YESṀ500
- 2022 FIFA Qatar World Cup: Will the World Cup Scorigami happen?YESṀ472
- Will Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?YESṀ400
- Will Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?YESṀ400
- Will Elon Musk abide by the results of his poll in re: reinstating Trump’s Twitter account?YESṀ330
- Will Gianni Infantino still be the President of FIFA on March 1, 2023?YESṀ300
- Will Baltic Pipe be operational on November 1?YESṀ199
97%
- Manifold Leaderboard: Will anyone have Ṁ250,000 profit by the end of 2023?YESṀ4,000
- Will Argentina make it out of the group stage in the 2022 World Cup?YESṀ1,000
- 2022 FIFA World Cup: Will there be a pitch invader?YESṀ941
- Will Bitcoin (BTC/USD) weekly candle be positive on the launch day of Artemis I?YESṀ639
- Poll: Reinstate former President TrumpYESṀ500
- 2022 FIFA World Cup: Will there be a pitch invader?YESṀ500
- Will Ecuador score the first goal of the 2022 FIFA World Cup?YESṀ500
- Will there be a streaker at the 2022 World Cup?NOṀ400
- Poll: Reinstate former President TrumpYESṀ300
- Will Mateusz Morawiecki stay Prime Minister of Poland through 2022?YESṀ300
99%
- January 2023: Will Russia lose more than 120,000 troops?YESṀ10,000
- Will Kanye West (@kanyewest) post on Instagram by the end of 2023?YESṀ5,900
- Will $DOGE (price of Dogecoin) dip below $0.10 by Nov 30?YESṀ4,000
- Will Manifold hit 1,000 active users daily (7d average) in 2022?YESṀ4,000
- Will Manifold hit 2,000 active users daily (7d average) in 2022?YESṀ3,300
- Will Manifold hit 600 active users daily (7d average) in 2022?YESṀ3,000
- Will Joe Biden visit Ukraine in 2023?YESṀ2,987
- Will Genesis announce it is filing for bankruptcy by January 31, 2023?YESṀ2,800
- Will Manifold hit 800 active users daily (7d average) in 2022?YESṀ2,800
- Will Dr Jordan B. Peterson (@jordanbpeterson) tweet in 2022?YESṀ2,000