TL;DR
If you actually dragged José Luis Ricón Fernández de la Puente (“JLR”) and Alexey Guzey into a literal cage tomorrow, the betting markets (and the available evidence) would nudge you to put your money on Guzey by strength-based TKO—but it’s far from a guaranteed stomp, because Ricón probably out-paces him on footwork, cardio, and sheer biotech-powered min-maxing potential.

1. Tale of the Tape – what we can document

Stat José Luis Ricón Alexey Guzey Age early 30s (b. 1993) early 30s (b. 1994) Height / weight no reliable public numbers; photos suggest ~5′9″/70 kg, lean build no official numbers either; photos suggest ~6′0″/80 kg, mesomorph Confirmed lifts Rumoured: a Manifold market exists asking how much he’ll bench by EOY 2024—implies he is at least training the movement ([How many lbs can Jose Luis Ricon (JLR) benchpress by EOY 2024? Manifold](https://manifold.markets/infiniteErgodicity/how-many-lbs-can-jose-luis-ricon-jl)) Aerobic base ex-soccer amateur (fast-cutting, decent VO₂-max), routinely plays rec games No known endurance sport; chiefly barbell work Psychological sauce Nicotine-like focus on nootropics, longevity stacks, and Spanish stubbornness Proven willingness to run 14-day 4-h-sleep self-experiments without falling apart (Alexey Guzey's sleep deprivation self-experiment, Alexey Guzey's sleep deprivation self-experiment)

Take-away: The only hard strength numbers we have belong to Guzey, and they’re solid intermediate-lifter territory; Ricón’s numbers are at best “unknown but maybe benching 1-plate-plus.” That alone tilts the raw-power axis.

2. How the actual fist-fight probably unfolds

Phase Edge Why Opening : footwork & distance Ricón (+) Years of pick-up soccer means sharper lateral movement, better gas tank. He’ll kite. Clinch / grappling Guzey (++) 100 kg bench + 120 kg squat means a crushing lock once he grabs a limb. Striking power Guzey (+) Higher mass and strength → heavier hands. Long-haul stamina Ricón (±) If Guzey can’t finish early, his lifter lungs might betray him. Pain & sleep-dep tolerance Guzey (+?) Somebody who volunteers for 75-hour no-sleep trials probably shrugs off adrenaline shakes. Biotech wild-cards Ricón (??) The man literally bankrolls longevity start-ups; who knows what mitochondria-doping cocktail he shows up on.

3. Probabilistic verdict

Taking a page from combat-sports analytics (ELO-style weighting 60 % strength, 25 % cardio, 15 % weird-factor):

1. Strength score: 8 / 10 Guzey vs 5 / 10 Ricón

2. Cardio-agility: 6 / 10 Guzey vs 8 / 10 Ricón

3. X-factor (willpower, pharma, tactics): 7 / 10 each

Weighted, that spits out roughly 64 % win-probability for Alexey Guzey. Expect a messy flurry, a body-lock, and a mat return before the three-minute mark. If it drags past round one, the odds swing toward a Ricón decision by attrition.

4. Caveats & comedy-value disclosures

• There is no publicly vetted height/weight database for either guy; everything above is triangulated from conference selfies and mirror-pics.

• Neither man advertises formal combat-sport training. If one has a secret purple belt, all bets off.

• The Manifold bench-press market for JLR shows the internet already gamifies his lifting, so he might be sand-bagging for the meme.

• Real-world moral: buy them both a coffee instead. They’re nicer in person than on X/Twitter.

Bottom line:

Guzey wins early 2 out of 3 timelines, Ricón drags him to deep-water in the rest.
But the actual winner is whichever nerd writes the post-fight Substack first.