Game-Theoretic Rock, Paper, Scissors, Lizard, Spock
Basic
24
Ṁ2537
resolved Aug 3
100%17%
Lizard
20%
Rock
17%
Paper
24%
Scissors
22%
Spock

Repeat the following until only one remains: Take the top two highest percentages and eliminate whichever loses the matchup between the two. The survivor is the winner.

The display percentage is used (rounded to the nearest percentage point).

Chart of matchings: https://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Ckv8GLzjQe4/S8cBVf4WRPI/AAAAAAAAAKs/ALF_XXfpK9I/s1600/RockPaperScissorsLizardSpock_by_iamthemiggy.jpg

The following are tiebreaker rules (they also apply when there are less than 5 remaining, the numbers are just shifted.)

If there's a tie between 1/2/3 and no cycle, the one that loses against the other two is eliminated first. (if there are 5 at first, this leaves the one that beats the other two to win at the current moment but lose immediately after since every item has 2 things it wins against and 2 things it loses against, so it actually only matters what the winner is between 4/5.)

If there's a three-way cycle between 1/2/3, all three are eliminated.

If there's a tie between 2/3 or 2/3/4 or 2/3/4/5 the losers to 1 out of 2/3/... are eliminated. If there are no losers to eliminate, 1 is eliminated.

If there's a 3-way, 4-way, or 5-way tie between all remaining options, the market resolves N/A.

Example order (no ties): Rock; Scissors; Paper; Lizard; Spock

Rock vs. Scissors: Rock crushes Scissors

Rock vs. Paper: Paper covers Rock

Paper vs. Lizard: Lizard eats Paper

Lizard vs. Spock: Lizard poisons Spock

Lizard wins!

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

oops

Spock smashes Scissors

Spock vaporises Rock

Spock is removed by Tiebreaker rules (no losers to eliminate)

finally, Lizard eats Paper

20 17 24 17 22

edit: did it wrong see above

Spock smashes Scissors

Rock crushes Scissors

by Tiebreaker rules, Rock crushes Lizard

finally, Paper covers Rock

I did not actually do 'the math' and just bet on vibes and heuristics. who won?

@jacksonpolack Damn you messed up my 342 payout on scissors lmao anyways Paper won, but check my work

why spock gone? didnt he win

or am i missing something

@jacksonpolack

oops

Spock smashes Scissors

Spock vaporises Rock

Spock is removed by Tiebreaker rules (no losers to eliminate)

finally, Lizard eats Paper

20 17 24 17 22

probably

Btw, I'm extending the tournament by a day to get more traders

@ii Doing that on a question where being present when it closes probably matters a lot is not good practice...

@Loop No one traded for like 3 days anyway

@ii Yeah but I expect some people will try to skew the results at the last minute

@Loop True but only if there are enough traders to care

I think this is balanced, I designed it so there's no easy way to win.

Comment if there's an ambiguity or some scenario I overlooked.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules