ido lum's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -3.17
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when ido lum bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
40%
50%
60%
- Will Destiny start a podcast with Erudite by the end of 2023?NOṀ10
- Will there be a major "incident" during the canvassing?NOṀ10
- Destiny and his canvassers knocked 20k doors last time in Georgia. Seeing as there will likely to be DOUBLE the amount of canvassers this time, will at least 30k doors be knocked this time?NOṀ10
70%
80%
90%
95%