Will private markets be free to create?
61%
chance
Nov 2
M$232 bet
MartinRandall
What counts as a private market? Eg, Manifold for Teams markets are private, right?
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ian
@MartinRandall hm, good q, I mean private markets made on https://manifold.markets - not at any subdomain
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Alice
Part of the problem with free daily markets was farming. I’m curious whether free private markets would face the same issue and groups would fill up with spam? My guess is that social norms would keep farming in check for smaller groups of friends, but not for larger interest-based groups.
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JoyVoid
joy_void_joy is betting YES at 64%
(That should be fairly resolvable with the ability to kick someone out)
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ian
@Alice you won't keep your earnings from betting on private markets: it's fake mana that only contributes to your position on the private group's leaderboard
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Alice
Having no stakes (using fake mana) would make Manifold a polling, not betting, site. Would fake mana markets be useful to their creators if bettors have no incentive to bet well? If there are no stakes, why not use Google Forms, since everyone’s already familiar with that?
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JoyVoid
joy_void_joy is betting YES at 64%
@Alice what is different from M$ being fake?
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Alice
@JoyVoid Yeah, real mana’s fake too. Mana signals status — that you bet well — but so does fake mana. The main difference right now is the ability to donate to charity, which I really value.
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ian
Of course the best possible scenario would involve group-specific tokens
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Alice
@ian If a user belongs to five groups, he’d have to manage six different currencies, right? Someone who belongs to hundreds of groups would have a complicated time using Manifold. Can you convert from one currency to another? If you run out of group-specific tokens, can you convert mana, or can you buy group-specific tokens with cash, or can you exchange one group token to another? Does your portfolio show all your currencies together, or do you need a separate portfolio chart for each?
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JoyVoid
joy_void_joy is betting YES at 64%
I don't find it very complicated, it's just that when you are in a group, you have a certain of points you can bet and that amount differs when you switch to a different group?
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jack
@ian I'm generally kind of skeptical of prediction markets for very small groups (although I would be interested to hear counterarguments). I think prediction markets are less efficient/good at aggregating small numbers of predictions than asking everyone to make separate predictions (preferably with a confidence number attached) and aggregating those together (i.e. prediction pools). With a market, prices fluctuate too much and people have to come back and bet many times for the market to reach a reasonable consensus. But of course it makes sense to use the same mechanism in different parts of the platform.
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JoyVoid
joy_void_joy is betting YES at 64%
While I agree in general, I think betting between friends as a way to preregister your belief is very valuable to me and one of the thing I am lacking the most in terms of tools right now
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JoyVoid
joy_void_joy is betting YES at 64%
(And to calibrate)
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jack
@JoyVoid To be clear, I'm very in favor of making predictions between friends, I just don't think a market is a particularly good way to go about it. As an example, I have several personal predictions that I record on another non-market platform (foretold) that are like 90% just me registering my own predictions, and 10% me and my wife registering our predictions.
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JoyVoid
joy_void_joy bought M$1 of YES
For now it's really hard to use manifold as a calibration platform
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DavidChee
SirSalty bought M$40 of YES
I want to try and work out an innovative solution that allows for private markets to be free to create, whilst still allowing real Mana to be bet. Firstly, it would be confusing if private markets use "fake" Mana. Secondly, I think it is just more fun if you are forced to use your real Mana against friends. It also incentivises you to interact with the rest of the site to earn Mana so you have more leverage to utilise in your private groups.
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ian
Con: it would be a bit harder to keep track of the private/group mana Pro: If the private markets were attached to a private group it would allow you to compete with friends with rankings that don't affect the main site's rankings
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