Will private markets be free to create?

closes Nov 2, 2024

47%

chance

Conditional on private markets being implemented. This would allow for unlimited markets with close friends that don't clutter up the public feed of markets. Private markets would have a limit of M$1000 per person but betting wouldn't cost or earn you anything: it'd just be for fun with friends or for your own record keeping. Cons: - It would be confusing to be able to bet with real mana on public markets and fake mana on private markets. - It may lower the usefulness of real mana Pros: - It would let people bet with friends and learn how to use the platform before losing real mana - It would let people create more fun markets just for them and their friends

Close date updated to 2022-11-01 11:59 pm

Close date updated to 2024-11-01 11:59 pm

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Orpheus

bought Ṁ10 of NO

I understand this question as to concern markets on the main site.

Michael Wheatley

As a counterpoint to "It would let people bet with friends and learn how to use the platform before losing real mana", I think it would still serve that purpose with real mana. The stakes are a lot lower with friends, since you don't have to worry about the metaphorical pool sharks swooping in and taking advantage of your bad bets. Your friends are less likely to ruthlessly profit at your expense, and they'll be happy to just send you your mana back if you manage to self-destruct without their assistance.

Martin Randall

What counts as a private market? Eg, Manifold for Teams markets are private, right?

Ian Philips

@MartinRandall hm, good q, I mean private markets made on https://manifold.markets - not at any subdomain

Alice

Part of the problem with free daily markets was farming. I’m curious whether free private markets would face the same issue and groups would fill up with spam? My guess is that social norms would keep farming in check for smaller groups of friends, but not for larger interest-based groups.

joy_void_joy

is predicting YES at 64%

(That should be fairly resolvable with the ability to kick someone out)

Ian Philips

@Alice you won't keep your earnings from betting on private markets: it's fake mana that only contributes to your position on the private group's leaderboard

Alice

Having no stakes (using fake mana) would make Manifold a polling, not betting, site. Would fake mana markets be useful to their creators if bettors have no incentive to bet well? If there are no stakes, why not use Google Forms, since everyone’s already familiar with that?

joy_void_joy

is predicting YES at 64%

@Alice what is different from M$ being fake?

Alice

@JoyVoid Yeah, real mana’s fake too. Mana signals status — that you bet well — but so does fake mana. The main difference right now is the ability to donate to charity, which I really value.

Ian Philips

Of course the best possible scenario would involve group-specific tokens

Alice

@ian If a user belongs to five groups, he’d have to manage six different currencies, right? Someone who belongs to hundreds of groups would have a complicated time using Manifold. Can you convert from one currency to another? If you run out of group-specific tokens, can you convert mana, or can you buy group-specific tokens with cash, or can you exchange one group token to another? Does your portfolio show all your currencies together, or do you need a separate portfolio chart for each?

joy_void_joy

is predicting YES at 64%

I don't find it very complicated, it's just that when you are in a group, you have a certain of points you can bet and that amount differs when you switch to a different group?

Jack

@ian I'm generally kind of skeptical of prediction markets for very small groups (although I would be interested to hear counterarguments). I think prediction markets are less efficient/good at aggregating small numbers of predictions than asking everyone to make separate predictions (preferably with a confidence number attached) and aggregating those together (i.e. prediction pools). With a market, prices fluctuate too much and people have to come back and bet many times for the market to reach a reasonable consensus. But of course it makes sense to use the same mechanism in different parts of the platform.

joy_void_joy

is predicting YES at 64%

While I agree in general, I think betting between friends as a way to preregister your belief is very valuable to me and one of the thing I am lacking the most in terms of tools right now

joy_void_joy

is predicting YES at 64%

(And to calibrate)

Jack

@JoyVoid To be clear, I'm very in favor of making predictions between friends, I just don't think a market is a particularly good way to go about it. As an example, I have several personal predictions that I record on another non-market platform (foretold) that are like 90% just me registering my own predictions, and 10% me and my wife registering our predictions.

joy_void_joy

bought Ṁ1 of YES

For now it's really hard to use manifold as a calibration platform

SirSalty

bought Ṁ40 of YES

I want to try and work out an innovative solution that allows for private markets to be free to create, whilst still allowing real Mana to be bet. Firstly, it would be confusing if private markets use "fake" Mana. Secondly, I think it is just more fun if you are forced to use your real Mana against friends. It also incentivises you to interact with the rest of the site to earn Mana so you have more leverage to utilise in your private groups.

Ian Philips

Con: it would be a bit harder to keep track of the private/group mana Pro: If the private markets were attached to a private group it would allow you to compete with friends with rankings that don't affect the main site's rankings