Metaculus' numerical style feels superior for now.

Moving a mean + error bars is more intuitive than choosing a range on a histogram to upweigh/downweigh.
Having to commit to a directionality before seeing the histogram is also a source of friction.

I do prefer the precision offered by the histogram in some cases, though. Makes it much easier to bet with a hard cutoff where some options get ~0 probability.

@jgyou I just added that you see the histogram by default

I think it is probably true that betting on numeric markets is harder due to choice overload. In a binary market you only have 2 options, but in numeric markets you have as many as 40 different options to choose from. I think experienced market creators know this and operationalize the question so that it gets at the most important time frame.

I haven't created one yet, but betting on them feels kind of clunky. It isn't obvious to me how my selected zone influences the price and payout. For example, classic linked MC markets with options are way more easy to use to me, even if I have to buy more than one option.

After my markets with the old NM have flopped and seeing the current markets, I'm not incentivized to try those as a creator.

I’ve noticed that people don’t like trading in them. All the ones that I’ve opened have been flops, so I went back to either choosing a single number for a binary (see “rectangle”), or making a list of numbers (see “Civil War”).

I tried them but probably won’t be making many more

@mattyb trying another numeric, let’s see how this one does:

I use it to predict how many hours will my uni projects take, I like it