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MANIFOLD
RecklessBen + Bricks & Minifigs prop bets
8
Ṁ1.3kṀ791
2027
74%
Will a settlement or court order require BAM to pay damages to Bryan Mansell by June 1, 2027?
68%
Will the GoFundMe for Mansell exceed $500k by July 1, 2026?
64%
Will a failure-to-appear warrant be issued for Schneider on or before June 15, 2026?
50%
Will Ben Schneider face a civil judgment against him related to the BAM matter before June 1, 2027?
50%
Will BAM and Mansell sign a public settlement by December 1st, 2026?
48%
Will Schneider serve any post-conviction incarceration arising from his conduct in the BAM matter, where the underlying conviction occurred on or before June 8, 2027, with incarceration beginning on or before September 1, 2027?
47%
Will BAM formally file to dismiss its claims against Bryan Mansell by July 1, 2026?
45%
Will Ben Schneider be convicted of (plead guilty to, or be found guilty of) at least one criminal charge arising from his conduct in the BAM matter, on or before June 1, 2027?
43%
Will BAM Corporate issue a public written apology to Mansell or his family by August 1, 2026, which uses either the word "sorry" or "apologize" (or derivatives of these words)?
40%
Will BAM announce a change in corporate leadership or ownership by December 31, 2026?
29%
Will the total amount raised by the GoFundMe for Mansell exceed $1,000,000 by January 1, 2027?
14%
Will Ben Schneider himself physically appear at the June 8, 2026 Utah court hearing?
Resolved
YES
Will Ben Schneider release a new video specifically addressing the Utah court proceedings before July 1, 2026?

Resolution criteria

This is an independent multiple choice market. Each added option (representing a specific prop bet) will resolve independently as YES, NO, or N/A based on public records, official court dockets, official statements, and credible media reporting.

Other / User-added options: Because anyone can add options, new options must be framed as objective, verifiable yes/no questions with clear deadlines. The market creator will resolve any added options in good faith using credible, verifiable public sources.

Background

The dispute began after 83-year-old Ed Mansell consigned his valuable Star Wars LEGO collection (estimated at $80,000 to $200,000) to a Bricks & Minifigs (BAM) franchise in Keizer, Oregon. After a change in franchise ownership, corporate and the new operators allegedly refused to return the unsold inventory or pay out the consignment value to Ed's son, Bryan Mansell.

YouTuber Benjamin "Reckless Ben" Schneider launched an investigative video series on the matter, conducting various stunts including confronting a franchise owner at his home in American Fork, Utah. This led to Schneider being arrested twice and criminally charged in Utah with stalking and targeted residential picketing. On May 30, 2026, BAM filed a civil lawsuit in Utah Fourth Judicial District Court (Case No. 260400253) accusing Schneider, Mansell, and others of civil RICO, defamation, and harassment.

To support Bryan Mansell, Schneider established a GoFundMe campaign which quickly surpassed $400,000 by early June 2026. Meanwhile, BAM announced the closure of its Salem/Keizer store and a split from the franchise owners involved, while offering to negotiate restitution with Mansell.

  • Update 2026-06-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The failure-to-appear warrant question will be resolved YES if such a warrant was issued in either the criminal case or the civil case (not limited to the criminal case only). A source must be provided to verify.

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bought Ṁ20 YES

@hrothgar Currently at $489K https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-bryan-recover-his-lego-collection

Donate to Help Bryan Recover His Stolen LEGO Collection, organized by ben schneider
Bryan and his 83-year-old father spent the last decade building an incredi… ben schneider needs your support for Help Bryan Recover His Stolen LEGO Collection

@hrothgar this is a video addressing the Utah Court proceedings and the TRO that was issued.
"This order was put on me because this company was telling the court that I was making bomb threats..." He is explicitly telling about court proceedings and orders, even while being under an order limiting what he can say.
My final message

My final message
Subscribe to https://www.patreon.com/c/RecklessBen for early access to episode 3. I can't post it now, but hopefully soon we can get this all sorted out soo...
bought Ṁ20 YES

@hrothgar Occurred on June 8th. It is mentioned in the lawsuit filed by BAM. It resolved within a couple days and is almost entirely unmentioned otherwise.

@ODU9Psu Hm I guess it's on me for not specifying the "failure to appear" as pertaining to the criminal case and not the civil one, but I'll allow it in either case. Can you link a source so I can verify? I searched but couldn't find it

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