horse's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -1.69
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when horse bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%
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