⭐ CLICK HERE TO FILL OUT THE SURVEY

I'm running the survey above. To qualify, you need to be a Manifold user with an account that was registered before Feb 22nd, 2025 and made at least 10 bets.

In the survey, respondents are asked: "Imagine you are trying to predict a complex global event happening 5 years from now. Imagine you have 1 hour to come up with a prediction and you cannot use the internet.
For each technique, please indicate how useful you would find it in this exercise."

Then, they are asked to rank the techniques from 1 (not useful at all) to 5 (extremely useful). They are randomly ordered (except for the final questions 12-15). I will look at the users' Brier scores using the calibration app (thanks, sufftea!). Note that the Brier score doesn't measure calibration but the distance of negative bets to zero and positive bets to 1 - therefore low is good.

All techniques where the usefulness will negatively correlate with the user's Brier score so that the Pearson's coefficient is at least 0.2 will resolve YES. Correlations lower than 0.2 will resolve NO. For illustration, that's e.g. the correlation between male gender and enjoyment of danger.

The survey will stop gathering responses by the resolution date (March 8).

If there's > 100 respondents, I might randomly select 100 users that will form the sample.

I will not bet on this market. I reserve the right to remove suspicious responses.