hominidan's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -3.5
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when hominidan bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
5%
10%
20%
30%
- Whether the "Konfederacja" party will gain more than 10% support in the upcoming parliamentary elections in Poland?NOṀ50
- Will Sir Ed Davey resign as the leader of the Liberal Democrats by the end of February 2024?NOṀ10
- Will Nikki Haley drop out of the race for President before the end of Feb 2024?NOṀ10
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
- Will Nikki Haley overtake and lead Ron DeSantis on 538's Republican Primary page at end of Blue Monday 2024? (Jan 15)YESṀ1,000
- If the Supreme Court rules Trump is allowed on the CO Primary ballot, will Nikki Haley drop out within a week?YESṀ500
- Will Nikki Haley drop out of the race by the end of Cinco de Mayo 2024, the 8th anniversary of Trump's Taco Bowl Tweet?YESṀ180
95%