wildbow's end of Pale blog post, found at https://palewebserial.wordpress.com/2023/10/10/end/, says:

"Past that, when the essays are done, I’ll be taking a break.  I’ll be using the time to try to get things in order, in hopes that when I resume I can get back to a two chapter a week schedule, to work out some story ideas for future projects, and as stated above, it’s hard to put my mind toward a task when I’m focused on the writing, and I’m looking at moving to another province.  I’m leaning into four months, aiming to restart in March, but my patreon page, discord, and reddit are probably the best places to get updates."

When do you think his next serial will start? This question is asking for the day the first chapter is posted. If it has not happened by the end of May this question will resolve "after May 2024", even if (as is barely possible to imagine) wildbow never writes anything again.