hidden's calibration
Grade: A, Score: -0.38
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when hidden bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
- Will there be a YES/NO market with more than 1k traders without "will" in its name before 2024?NOṀ100
- Will Deutsche Bank AG close higher december 15th than the close of december 8th? (WeeklyMarket)YESṀ15
- Will Ethereum (ETH/USD) Close Higher Sun. December 3rd Than The Close Of Sun. November 26th? {WEEKLY}YESṀ12
70%
- Will Bitcoin Cash (BCH/USD) Close Higher Sat. December 30th Than The Close Of Fri. December 29th? {DAILY}YESṀ26
- Will Bitcoin Cash (BCH/USD) Close Higher Mon. December 4th Than The Close Of Sun. December 3rd? {DAILY}YESṀ12
- Will CAC 40 close higher november 23th than the close of november 22th? (Daily Market)YESṀ11
80%
90%
95%
97%