hdm's calibration
Grade: C+, Score: -4.3
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when hdm bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
- On July 1st will Trump have the support of more than 40% of likely republican primary voters by a poll of polls?YESṀ100
- At noon monday PST, we'll have line of sight to >80% recovery for uninsured deposits as judged by @krishnanrohitYESṀ55
- 1. Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 2023?YESṀ40