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MANIFOLD
When will the Utah snowpack drop below 1 inch
1
Ṁ125Ṁ54
Aug 2
April 25, 2026
30%
Apr 8-17, 2026
30%
Apr 18-27, 2026
30%
Apr 28-May 11, 2026
10%
May 12-Jul 1, 2026

This year, Utah has gotten record low snowpack (I have heard that this is due to a combination of lower than normal precipitation and higher than usual temperatures). What day will the snowpack water equivalent drop below 1 inch? I will resolve this to the first date it is .9 in or lower: If the chart says it is 1 inch equivalent, that will not resolve; if it drops below 1 inch and then there is snowfall that pushes it back up past the 1 inch mark, I will still use the first date.

Context:

  • The historical dates for the snowpack to drop below one inch have been [Earliest: May 9, Median: June 1, Latest: July 3]

  • As of Apr. 7 when I'm making this market, the snowpack is at the equivalent of 3 snow water inches, as opposed to this historical [Min: 5.5 in, Median: 13.9 in, Max: 30 in] on this day.

I will resolve based on the Natural Resources Conservation Service chart:

https://nwcc-apps.sc.egov.usda.gov/awdb/basin-plots/POR/WTEQ/assocHUCut3/state_of_utah.html. This is also where I got the numbers for the Context bullet points.

I will not vote in this market

Market context
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