harry's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -2.74
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when harry bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
30%
- Will widespread riots (in at least 3 states) break out as a result of Trump’s impending arrest?NOṀ20
- Trump is asking his supporters to protest his imminent arrest next week. Will there be riots in New York in March?NOṀ10
- Trump is asking his supporters to protest his imminent arrest next week. Will there be riots in New York in March?NOṀ10
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
- Will Nikki Haley overtake and lead Ron DeSantis on 538's Republican Primary page at end of Blue Monday 2024? (Jan 15)YESṀ1,100
- Is de opkomst bij de Provinciale Statenverkiezingen hoger dan in 2019?YESṀ634
- Will the Dow Jones (DJI) close higher on August 9th than it closed on August 8th? [Ṁana Leaderboard]NOṀ600
95%
97%