Terms

• "Ocean.xyz" is the mining pool announced by Luke Dashjr in November 2023 as a successor to his old Eligius mining pool. If there's a clear rebranding to another name before the end of this market, the market will settle based on the performance of the new brand. If something less clear happens (e.g. the organization fractures) or if the pool is permanently shut down (according to its operators), this market will be settled as "NO".

• "An Ocean.xyz block" will be determined by checking blocks for the characteristic signs of the Ocean.xyz pool (e.g. coinbase tag and outputs style) and checking whether the blocks are listed by the pool's own reporting (if any is available at closing), e.g. https://ocean.xyz/dashboard

• "The final 1,000 Bitcoin blocks of 2024" shall be the last block with a block header timestamp from 2024 (UTC) and the 999 blocks before that.

  • To avoid reorganization concerns, the final block must have at least 30 blocks built on top of it (typically takes about ~300 minutes) on the best blockchain according to my Bitcoin full node.

  • Note: Bitcoin consensus rules allow a block to include a timestamp in 2024 up until the median timestamp of the most recent 11 blocks is in 2025; search for "Bitcoin median time past" for more details. That means some blocks with timestamps in 2025 may appear earlier in the blockchain than the final block of 2024 and so be counted as part of "the final blocks of 2024".

  • Under typical (non-attack) scenarios, the preceding two points mean that this market cannot settle "YES" until about 06:00 UTC on 2025-01-01.

  • Here's a [sample script](https://gist.github.com/harding/4c1f734580afe8dd5151ce60b4c31762) for finding the last block in a year.

• A "Bitcoin block" is a block on the most-proof-of-work valid blockchain in according to a fully-synced default configuration of Bitcoin Core 25.1 as found at <https://bitcoincore.org> at the time this market is opened.

• "1% of 1,000 blocks" is 10 blocks.

Notes

• Part of Ocean.xyz's mission is to improve mining decentralization. That may eventually include adopting decentralized technologies that eliminate the need for them to operate a centralized mining pool. If that happens and it's not possible to attribute recent blocks to their pool, won't have mined 1% of the final 1k blocks in 20224 and this market will resolve to "NO".

• I will bet in this market. If I believe there's more than a 1% ambiguity about the outcome at settlement time, I'll ask one or more well-known Bitcoin Core contributors to determine how to resolve this market.