How will the conspiracy be revealed to Keltham?
8
36
resolved May 6
ResolvedN/A
7%
Direct revelation from Abadar
4%
Keltham sees the conspiracy tracking board
4%
Deliberately, on Snack Service's recommendation
17%
The conspiracy fails such that Carissa implements the plan of running away with Keltham
7%
Osirion gives him info
10%
He notices something’s wrong after being petrified
5%
Several apparently small things cause him to update to critical levels of Conspiracy-likelihood
6%
One of the newbies breaks character
2.0%
Ione Nethysian theological inconsistencies
0.0%
He requests documentation (eg: Project transcripts, newspapers, history books, Governance budgets, transaction ledgers) and it's unconvincingly faked or not provided
35%
He requests documentation (eg: Project transcripts, newspapers, history books, Governance budgets, transaction ledgers) and it's unconvincingly faked, not provided, or honestly reveals a Conspiracy
Resolves N/A if Keltham is still unaware, or it's ambiguous whether he's really discovered the core andor extent of Cheliax's lies, by close date. Preference generally given to more precise guesses. If multiple answers apply I will try to credit a reasonable percentage correctness. If some answers have clear overlap before resolution I will update this description with handling details. Mar 16, 1:57pm: #4, the runaway plan risks hitting the N/A condition of an intentionally *partial* reveal; the girls seem to intend to keep managing his information if they can. #7, accumulation of small things, is hard to judge. Probably will only get a couple percentage points if it triggers, and majority will go to any actually-listed factors known to have contributed.
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He requests documentation (eg: Project transcripts, newspapers, history books, Governance budgets, transaction ledgers) and it's unconvincingly faked, not provided, or honestly reveals a Conspiracy
Books!
bought Ṁ1 of He requests document...
Yep, with a longer term question I'd put more credence on him being sprung by Abadar though as it stands to do that it would take more real time for the authors to set it up.
bought Ṁ2 of He requests document...
This market is probably going to resolve N/A, I think recreating it after expiry with a longer timeframe would be a good idea (although I'm not volunteering).
bought Ṁ1 of He requests document...
Keltham: "Hopefully Security can get you a copy of the transcript, I should be reading all of mine and checking them but I do not, in fact, seem to be doing that." Asmodia: "Oh NO oh NO there's no way Korva could have seen that coming but 'Don't nudge Keltham into reviewing all his transcripts' is on the wall in PURPLE and now they need a subject change a SMOOTH subject change that doesn't make Keltham notice anything strange is going on, or some other person coming by to interrupt, or failing that even an outright DISTRACTION quick somebody think of SOMETHING -"
bought Ṁ5 of He requests document...
Asmodia, on newspapers: "...this sounds like a nightmare for the Conspiracy, actually."
bought Ṁ1 of The conspiracy fails...
I intended it to include those.
bought Ṁ1 of The conspiracy fails...
Does this include cases where one or more of the non-Carissa girls/students run away with Keltham?
sold Ṁ2 of Several apparently s...
I'm somewhat expecting the result to not have any of the large items listed here, thereby making this the only or one of the only correct options despite being non-specific. Selling to readjust with the proposed resolution.