Em ✨'s calibration
Grade: A, Score: -0.37
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Em ✨ bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
5%
10%
- Will Sam Bankman-Fried publicly donate at least $5 million to buy solar panels by the end of 2022?NOṀ10
- Will Sam Bankman-Fried publicly donate at least $5 million to buy solar panels by the end of 2022?NOṀ10
- Some rationalists take significant political action this Oops It's Time To Overthrow Governance Again dayNOṀ6
20%
30%
- In the glowfic continuity "planecrash", will one of the conspirators reveal, attempt to reveal, or be removed from in order to prevent them revealing, the conspiracy, before the start of (actual) Day 47 as measured by the PL timestamps?NOṀ150
- Will two or more people show up to my house tomorrow for cheerful harberger?YESṀ35
- Will Donald Trump be indicted for any crimes in any jurisdiction by the end of 2022?NOṀ10
40%
50%
60%
70%
- Will we have a clear policy by the end of the year on the circumstances under which the Manifold team will delete/edit/resolve someone else's market or comment?NOṀ35
- Will this market have M$20,000 invested by March 11th?YESṀ25
- In 2022, will MM offer suggested existing markets as you create a new market?NOṀ20
80%
90%
95%
97%
99%
- Will at least one of the Manifold founders be accepted to Future Forum 2022?YESṀ250
- Will the USA still require a negative Covid test for travelers entering via air from Canada on March 31st?YESṀ200
- Will masks still be required on ordinary passenger domestic flights in the United States on March 20th 2022?YESṀ150