Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if ETH closes at or above $4,100 USD on December 5, 2025. Resolution will be determined using the closing price from major cryptocurrency exchanges aggregated on CoinGecko, which calculates Ethereum price in real-time by aggregating data across 219 exchanges. If multiple price feeds show conflicting data, the volume-weighted average across major exchanges will be used.

Background

As of November 29, 2025, Ethereum (ETH) is trading around $3,000 per coin, requiring approximately a 37% gain to reach $4,100 in six days. Ethereum's all-time high is $4,953.73, which was reached on August 24, 2025. The "Fusaka" upgrade scheduled for December aims to improve scalability and overall system efficiency, which some analysts cite as a potential catalyst for price movement.

Considerations

Most analyst forecasts for early December 2025 predict ETH in the $3,100–$3,400 range. One forecast indicates ETH will increase by 2.56% and reach $3,109.50 by December 01, 2025, while another predicts a 11.65% increase to $3,377.16 by December 29, 2025. Reaching $4,100 by December 5 would require a sharp reversal from current consolidation patterns and would represent a move significantly above near-term analyst consensus.