Sorry everyone I had some Irl things so I forgot that I had some markets to close

@grofigaszadosijv life happens! thanks for coming back and handling this

This should resolve to NO given the colorado ruling, no? Or does this only take into account that some states tried to kick him off the ballot, even if they end up having to put him back up?

@clericofjank we have a while until the election - is it impossible for him to be kicked off a ballot between now and then?

@clericofjank this should have already resolved yes 3 days ago when illinois kicked him off the ballot. @grofigaszadosijv please resolve

@clericofjank Illinois kicked him out after this market was created. If kicking him out pending supreme court approval didn't count the description wouldn't have included Maine.

@SemioticRivalry creator didn't answer any questions about Illinois and has been afk for 4 days - at what point should it be intervened?

@shankypanky Now that the creator's been pinged, we'll give 24 hours and then I'll resolve to YES unless they resolve otherwise.

Please resolve

This has happened in Illinois: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-is-disqualified-illinois-ballot-judge-rules-2024-02-29/

@lisamarsh he can still appeal

@shankypanky Well, he can appeal the Maine and Colorado rulings as well (and is doing so), but the description implies they would count.

@lisamarsh sure, I'm just reading the part that says "...but she delayed her ruling from taking effect in light of an expected appeal by the former U.S. president." so it's not in place yet afaict?

@shankypanky The Maine and Colorado rulings aren’t in effect either. Trump will be on the ballot in Colorado next week (unless the Supreme Court makes a ruling by then).

Oregon Supreme Court could be next to rule on Trump’s eligibility for the ballot under the 14th Amendment

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/10/politics/oregon-14th-amendment-trump/index.html

Does this resolve based on initial announcement or what the ballot looks like on voting day? i.e. if a state intends to kick him off the ballot but the Supreme Court forces a reversal?

@OllieG I'm assuming the Supreme Court won't have time to force a reversal but it will be going off the initial announcement of the state's government. (So yeah, they have to officially kick him off the ballot).

Added to https://manifold.markets/news/trump-on-the-colorado-ballot

What other states are currently thinking of kicking him out?

@esusatyo I'm not sure but they have to hand in their ballots one month before their primaries (not 100% sure about that) so we'll know soon enough.