See https://eprint.iacr.org/2024/555. If accurate, this would rule out lattice problems as a foundation for post-quantum cryptography - a very significant result.

Resolves YES if the high-level message of the paper is accurate, even if there are minor bugs that make the technical claims slightly weaker than advertised. Otherwise resolves NO.

Resolves when there's a consensus among experts according to my subjective judgement, speaking as someone who personally knows a lot of quantum cryptographers. Happy to answer questions in the comments about if some specific scenario would qualify for a YES or NO resolution.

I won't bet on this market.