See here for info on why/how gpt headline markets :
https://predictionmarkets.miraheze.org/wiki/GPT4_Headline_Markets
https://predictionmarkets.miraheze.org/wiki/Headline_Template
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Title:
"Will a Presidential Candidate Call for an End to Anonymous Online Posting by November 5th, 2024?"
Introduction:
In March 2024, it was revealed that former U.S. President Donald Trump authorized a CIA operation aimed at influencing Chinese public opinion via online posts. This clandestine campaign, initiated in 2019, involved operatives creating fake identities to disseminate negative narratives about China's government. This operation has sparked debate around the ethics and impact of anonymous online postings, potentially influencing future political discourse.
Example and Likely Headlines for YES Resolution:
"Presidential Candidate Trump calls to Ban Anonymous Posting."
"2024 Presiden Biden Calls for an End to Anonymous Social Media Accounts to Prevent Foreign Influence."
"Presidential Candidate Trump Demands Identity Verification on Social Platforms."
"Election 2024: Candidate Biden Announces Plan to Eliminate Anonymous Posting to Combat Misinformation."
"Leading Presidential Candidate Trump Advocates for Ending Online Anonymity to Protect National Security."
Example Edge Cases for NO Resolution:
"Presidential Candidate Raises Concerns About Online Anonymity but Stops Short of Calling for Ban."
"2024 Candidate Suggests Regulation of Social Media Bots, Avoids Comment on Anonymous Posting."
"Election 2024: Discussion on Online Privacy Intensifies, No Direct Call to End Anonymity by Candidates."
"Presidential Hopeful Criticizes Foreign Influence Operations, Does Not Specifically Address Anonymous Posting."
"Candidate Calls for More Transparency in Online Campaigning, Does Not Propose Ending Anonymous Posts."
Only headlines involving Trump or Biden calling for an end to anonymous posting will qualify for this market.
Prompt to resolve market
<paste in market above rules above>
Using the above, will the following headline qualify?
<paste in headline + lead paragraph>
The prompt to resolve the market is submitted 3 times using temperature 0 via the OpenAI API to the latest GPT model broadly available. It must qualify all three times in order to resolve as YES.
Note that only headlines published before the end date in the title and from the following sources can be used: Reuters, WSJ, AP, washingtonpost, NYT, BBC, ABC, NBC, CBS, and The Economist.
Check out more headline markets here - https://manifold.markets/gpt_news_headlines