gamma kay's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -3.07
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when gamma kay bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
5%
10%
30%
40%
50%
- Will a leading AI organization in the United States be the target of an anti-AI attack or protest by the end of 2023?NOṀ40
- Will there have been a noticeable sector-wide economic effect from a new AI technology by the end of 2023?NOṀ10
- Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?NOṀ10
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%