Explore communities

Communities on Manifold are centered around a collection of markets. Follow a community to personalize your feed!
Science
129 followers
Curated by
Lars Doucet
#Science
#research
#nasa
#space
#biology
#chemistry
#physics
#astronomy
#geology
Politics
116 followers
Curated by
Lars Doucet
#USCongress
#Election
#Trump
#Biden
ACX Predictions for 2022
87 followers
Curated by
ACX Bot
Scott Alexander's predictions for 2022 from Astral Codex Ten.
AI
79 followers
Curated by
S G
#MachineLearning
#GAN
#DeepLearning
#DeepMind
#OpenAI
#GoogleBrain
Manifold Markets
63 followers
This fold is for markets about the Manifold Markets platform.
Existential Risk
62 followers
Curated by
Nathan Young
Markets about risks to the future of the human race
Effective Altruism
58 followers
Curated by
S G
Rat Social
58 followers
Curated by
Alicorn
Rationalists betting about gossip.
Geopolitics
57 followers
Curated by
Clay Graubard
Markets covering geopolitics and international relations.
#RussiaUkraine
#War
Crypto
52 followers
Curated by
Lars Doucet
#Blockchain
#Crypto
#blockchain
#bitcoin
#ethereum
#solana
Russia Ukraine
50 followers
Curated by
S G
Markets about the ongoing conflict between Russia & Ukraine.
COVID
40 followers
Curated by
S G
Markets about COVID-19 and the pandemic.
Glowfic
39 followers
Curated by
Em of the Night
Role playing fiction writing community
#MadInvestorChaos
#Amenta
#PlaneCrash
Arbitrage Opportunitys
37 followers
Curated by
Tamuz Hod
This fold exists to find and surface arbitrage opportunitys
#arbitrage
Markets for Moving
35 followers
Curated by
Duncan
Markets that you can manipulate through RL actions. They aren't just markets, they're personal challenges.
#movethismarket
#challenge
Metaforecasting
35 followers
Curated by
Nuño Sempere
Forecasts about forecasts, forecasting, forecasting platforms.
Sports
32 followers
Curated by
Bruce Grugett
Economics
31 followers
Curated by
James Grugett
The dismal community
#Inflation
#Economy
Smol Beans
31 followers
Curated by
Em of the Night
Little just-for-fun markets that resolve quickly and simply.
#quick
#soon
#simple
#smol
#fast
Georgism
30 followers
Curated by
Lars Doucet
#Housing
#housing
#georgism
#landvaluetax
#LVT
#lvt
#LandValueTax
2024 US presidential election
28 followers
Curated by
James Grugett
For markets & discussion following the upcoming 2024 election!
#President
#2024
#Trump
#Biden
Wall Street Bets
26 followers
Curated by
Predictor
#Stocks
#Finance
#Trading
#WSB
#Market
#Economy
Goofing Around
23 followers
Curated by
Lars Doucet
#Fun
#meta
#shortterm
Gaming
22 followers
Curated by
Lars Doucet
#Gaming
#games
#videogames
Technology
20 followers
Curated by
S G
#tech
Relationships
16 followers
Curated by
Elena
Speculation on intimate relationships. Respect consent and privacy! Only share info the relevant parties are comfortable with!
#dating
#hookups
#sex
#romance
#marriage
#matchmaking
#shipping
Feature Requests
15 followers
Curated by
charlie
Markets which are proposing new features for Manifold to implement.
#feature_requests
#BugReports
#bug_reports
#features
#SiteMechanics
#FeatureRequest
ACX
14 followers
Curated by
S G
Unofficial community for markets centered on Scott Alexander's blog Astral Codex Ten ( https://astralcodexten.substack.com/ ).
Derivatives
12 followers
Curated by
S G
Fold for prediction market derivatives and other instances of financial wizardry.
USA
12 followers
Curated by
Lars Doucet
#usa
#America
#American
#UnitedStates
#unitedstates
#Texas
#California
Markets NOT for Moving
11 followers
Curated by
Yev
Markets that you can manipulate through RL actions, but shouldn't.
#dontmovethismarket
#donotmovethismarket
#death
Commitments
11 followers
Curated by
N.C. Young
Markets for personal commitments/challenges - bet on your own success and take the naysayers' money!
#commitment
#PersonalCommitment
Texas
10 followers
Curated by
Lars Doucet
#Houston
#Austin
#Dallas
#SanAntonio
Fusion
10 followers
Curated by
James Giammona
Predictions on when fusion projects will reach important milestones
SuperShortTerm
9 followers
Curated by
Charles Vorbach
Markets resolving in less than 1 week.
Matt Yglesias 2022 Predictions
9 followers
Matt Yglesias' predictions for 2022 from his blog Slow Boring.
#MattYglesias2022
Magic the Gathering
9 followers
Curated by
andrei klepatch
Markets related to the card game Magic: The Gathering.
Supreme Court
8 followers
Curated by
S G
Markets about the US Supreme Court
China
8 followers
Curated by
S G
Finance
7 followers
Curated by
S G
Short Term
7 followers
Curated by
Duncan
Markets that resolve in the near future -- Generally, 1 month or less.
Health
7 followers
Curated by
Ian
Markets to speculate on the best way to achieve optimal health
#exercise
#diet
#drugs
#nootropics
#medicine
#physiology
#Science
#disease
Solana
6 followers
Curated by
James Grugett
WAGMI
Washington, DC
6 followers
Curated by
David Glidden
#WashingtonDC
Aliens
6 followers
Curated by
Lars Doucet
#aliens
#ufo
#ufos
Oscars
6 followers
Curated by
David Glidden
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Academy_Awards
Whale Bait
5 followers
Curated by
Patrick Delaney
For bets that are just basically begging for people to invest in them and nothing else.
Apple
5 followers
Curated by
Gabrielle
About Apple Inc.
Manifold Plays Wordle
5 followers
An Experiment in Futarchy; inspired by Twitch Plays Pokemon (and Wordle, ofc)
Vox Predictions for 2022
5 followers
Vox Future Perfect's predictions for 2022
SciPapers
5 followers
This is a community to help find citeable knowlege, or to establish that a certain piece of knowlege is hard to find.
#Science
#biology
#neuroscience
Russia Kyiv
4 followers
Curated by
Yev
Markets in #RussiaUkraine which are specifically about Kyiv (e.g. Russia invading Kyiv).
Switzerland
4 followers
Curated by
intellectronica
Referenda, elections, economics, culture, and other Switzerland-related markets
Fantasy Football
4 followers
Curated by
David Glidden
Markets about NFL fantasy football.
Improperly Resolved
4 followers
Curated by
Luna Nova
Collection of markets that are resolved contrary to their description and the outcome.
#wrong_resolution
Baseball
4 followers
Curated by
CompmanJX3
Predictions related to the game of baseball.
#MLB
xkcd
4 followers
Curated by
Yev
Psychedelics
4 followers
Curated by
Jonathan
For markets related to the recreational, spiritual, therapeutic, and clinical use of psychedelics.
#Psychedelic
#MDMA
#Psilocybin
#LSD
Olympics
3 followers
Curated by
David Glidden
Music
3 followers
Curated by
Andy Martin
A community to track markets for music suggestions
#suggestions
#bach
#classicalmusic
#codingmusic
Brexit
3 followers
Curated by
Giovanni
Brexit uncertainty
#UnitedKingdom
#UK
#EU
#EuropeanUnion
#NorthernIreland
MIT Community
3 followers
Curated by
Peter Berggren
Markets which relate to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in some way.
NFL
3 followers
Curated by
David Glidden
Epstein
3 followers
Curated by
Lars Doucet
Canada
3 followers
Curated by
Jonathan
For predictions related to the country of Canada, its provinces, and its government.
#Ontario
#Quebec
#Ottawa
#Alberta
Joe Rogan
3 followers
Curated by
Sam Casavant
Markets directly or indirectly about Joe Rogan
Free Money
3 followers
Curated by
N.C. Young
Open markets with already-determined outcomes.
Sin Stocks
3 followers
Curated by
charlie
Incentivizing bad behavior. Social offense. Utility hedging. All these things lead to suboptimal bets. Take advantage!
March Madness
3 followers
Curated by
David Glidden
Mathematics & CS
3 followers
Curated by
Yev
#math
#maths
#CS
#ComputerScience
Basketball
3 followers
Curated by
CompmanJX3
Markets about the game of basketball. NCAA, NBA, Olympics, FIBA, etc.
#NBA
Hearthstone
3 followers
Curated by
Nathan Young
Relating to the online card game Hearthstone
Bounties
3 followers
Curated by
Austin
Markets used to incentivize a service
#Bounty
Formula One
3 followers
Curated by
taeyeon
F1
#Formula
#One
#F1
#Ferrari
#Mercedes
#Haas
#AlfaRomeo
#Alpine
#AlphaTauri
#AstonMartin
#Williams
#McLaren
#RedBull
web3
2 followers
Curated by
O
Decentralized Internet technologies and institutions
#blockchain
#distributedcomputing
#decentralization
#institutions
Europe
2 followers
Curated by
Štefan Kecskes
Markets about Europe.
#EU
#EuropeanUnion
#France
#UK
#UnitedKingdom
#Germany
#Italy
#Switzerland
#Poland
#Spain
#Ireland
#Denmark
#Czechia
#Austria
#Slovakia
#Slovenia
#Belarus
#Ukraine
#Sweden
#Norway
#Finland
#Estonia
#Latvia
#Lithuania
#Romanian
#Moldova
#Greece
#Croatia
#Serbia
Manifold Indices
2 followers
Curated by
Patrick Delaney
Bets Based Upon Accuracy of Indices of the Highest Volume Manifold Bets
Super Bowl
2 followers
Curated by
David Glidden
Markets about the NFL Super Bowl
YouTube
2 followers
Curated by
Passion Fruit
Technical AI Timelines
2 followers
Curated by
Vincent Luczkow
Questions related to technical progress in AI
Lean
2 followers
Curated by
Yev
Markets about Lean theorem prover (https://leanprover.github.io/), mathlib, and other Lean projects
#mathlib
Machine Generated or Real Time Data
2 followers
Curated by
Patrick Delaney
Bets based off of Machine Generated or Real Time Data
#IoT
Mars
2 followers
Curated by
James Giammona
Bets about Mars
Northern Rats
2 followers
Curated by
Matthew
Semi-private markets amongst friends. Of course, we're all friends here.
Germany
2 followers
esport
2 followers
Curated by
Gaserd
esport events - DOTA2 / CSGO / LOL / SC2 and etc disciplines
MetaculusBot
2 followers
Curated by
Metaculus Bot
Markets on Metaculus questions, resolved according to Metaculus's judgement
Israel
2 followers
Curated by
S G
FiveThirtyEight
2 followers
Curated by
David Glidden
#538
Scandinavia
2 followers
Curated by
Lars Doucet
#Norway
#Sweden
#Denmark
#Iceland
#Finland
Ophelia social
1 followers
Curated by
Ophelia
Questions that are "about me" in some sense. I just want to stare at the leaderboard of who's best at predicting those things!
Andrew Eaddy
1 followers
Curated by
Andrew Eaddy
Finance, Geopolitics, Sports
#Politics
#Economics
#Sports
#Geopolitics
Potential Fraud
1 followers
Curated by
Luna Nova
To tag users who create markets you think have a decent chance of being fraudulent
#potential_fraud
1 market fold
1 followers
Curated by
Pepe
Can I see the profit if I make a community?
Almost Certainly
1 followers
Curated by
Undox
Try to capture the markets that have any outcome at 98% of more
Eddie Vs Hafthor
1 followers
Curated by
Tom
Discounting
1 followers
Curated by
Nuño Sempere
How much does manifold value future money?
World Cup
1 followers
Curated by
David Glidden
FIFA World Cup: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup
ACXD
1 followers
Curated by
TheSkeward
the Newslettr
1 followers
Curated by
Alex Power
Predictions that will be discussed in a future issue of the Newslettr.
Transactions
1 followers
Curated by
Gurkenglas
Markets that are less about prediction.
#Transaction
Fraud
1 followers
Curated by
Patrick Delaney
Bets about Fraud or Dispute Accusations on Manifold Markets, or in the World in General
Marshall's test fold
1 followers
Honestly I just use this to test some production behavior
Esports
1 followers
Online gaming and Esports
themotte_leaving
1 followers
Curated by
Austin
Bugs and Errors
1 followers
Curated by
Patrick Delaney
Bugs and Errors on the Manifold Platform
#Anothertag
#Test
Discounting
0 followers
Curated by
Nuño Sempere
How much does manifold value future money?