Who will win the 2024 Romanian presidential election?
Basic
27
Ṁ6747
resolved Dec 7
ResolvedN/A
33%
Elena Lasconi
26%
Călin Georgescu
19%
Marcel Ciolacu
12%
George Simion
6%
Nicolae Ciucă
1.9%
Mircea Geoană
1.7%Other

Will be resolved when the winner is officially known. If elections are not held in 2024, the market will resolve to N/A.

November 2024 update: elections have started but are being contested. If they continue into 2025, the market will resolve to the winner. If they do not conclude in 2025, the market will resolve N/A.

December 2024 update: the first round has been annulled. I will treat the elections as *continuing* into 2025, even if they may technically start over in 2025.
Second December 2024 update: I have decided that it's not really fair to treat the elections as continuing after they have been annulled. Therefore, I am resolving this market N/A and creating a new market for the next Romanian presidential election: https://manifold.markets/ezra290/who-will-win-the-next-romanian-pres?play=true

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Sorry for changing my decision, but I will annul this market in light of the annulment of the first round and create a new market. I will post the link to it here.

This poll should be annulled, same as the vote.

They are going to keep voting until they get the "correct" result:

https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/06/europe/romania-annuls-presidential-election-intl/index.html

And here is the State Dept on recent events, basically saying "good job, Romania":

https://www.state.gov/statement-on-romanias-presidential-elections/

Can't let a little thing like an electoral outcome stop you (or better yet: just stop having elections, like in Ukraine). Anyway, time to rewatch the Mike Benz episode of Joe Rogan🤣

Reading some more on this -- results thrown out over $381K in TikTok promotions? Who knew you could swing an election with $0.02 per capita of investment. This really looks like a coup encouraged, if not orchestrated, by the US.

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