Will Zelda be playable in the next 3D main-series Zelda game?
12
69
250
2030
27%
chance

This market resolves as YES if Zelda is playable for at least a significant portion of the next 3D main-series Zelda game. Otherwise, it resolves as NO.

"A significant portion" means more than just an introductory sequence/prologue, a single dungeon, a single boss fight, or an epilogue scene. She doesn't have to be playable for the entire game, but playing as her should be an important aspect of it. If there is a post-game (i.e. large post-credits portion of the game) in which Zelda is playable, that is sufficient to resolve this market as YES.

The player must be directly controlling Zelda with their inputs. Zelda doesn't count as playable if she's just following Link or another character, if she's just taking suggestions or orders from Link or another character, or so on. The player must be able to move around and interact with the world in some way through Zelda herself.

"Main-series Zelda game" is a somewhat loose term, but refers to a game that is widely recognized as such by fans, or is stated to be such by Nintendo. The most recent 3D main-series Zelda games have been Tears of the Kingdom, Breath of the Wild, and Skyward Sword. For the purpose of this market, remakes don't count as "the next" game. When the game's title is revealed, this market's title and description will be updated to reflect it.

This market has a preliminary close date of December 31, 2029. Upon the announcement of a release window for the next 3D main-series Zelda game, this market's close date will be set to the end of that release window; then, upon the announcement of a release date for the game, it will be set to the release date of the game. If the game leaks early, this market will close roughly 24 hours after I am first made aware of the leaks.

This market will resolve as YES early if trailers or gameplay footage show that Zelda is unambiguously a playable character in the game. Otherwise, the market will resolve as either YES or NO after one month has passed since the game's release, unless I have not completed the game by that point, in which case it resolves upon me completing the game.

If Nintendo ceases to exist or announces the end of the Legend of Zelda franchise, this market resolves as N/A.

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bought Ṁ6 of NO

Unfortunately putting on NO. On the bright side, either I get Mana or I get playable Zelda. Win-win?

predicts NO

@Kraalnaxx Exactly what I did, too! I really hope Zelda is playable next time, but if not, at least I get a tiny bit of profit.

bought Ṁ5 of NO

Putting 5 on NO as insurance.