This market resolves as YES if the gap between the Democratic margin in "large metro areas" and "rural areas," as measured by the National Election Pool/Edison Research, is at least 50.2 percentage points in 2024. Otherwise, it resolves as NO.
For reference, according to the second graph in this article, the urban-rural divide in recent American presidential elections was:
19.9 percentage points (D+3 in large metros, R+16.9 in rural areas) in 2000
22.3 % pts. (D+0.8, R+21.5) in 2004
27.2 % pts. (D+11.7, R+15.5) in 2008
31.0 % pts. (D+8.8, R+22.2) in 2012
47.2 % pts. (D+11.6, R+35.6) in 2016
50.1 % pts. (D+14.1, R+36) in 2020
If the 2024 presidential election is delayed, this market's closing date is delayed. If the election never occurs, this market resolves as N/A.
While this market closes on the morning of November 5 to prevent exit polls from skewing the results, it may not resolve for a week or so, as I would like to be sure that the amount of collected and aggregated electoral data is enough to draw a clear conclusion from. For example, I might resolve to YES if the urban-rural divide appears to be 60 percentage points with 95% of the national vote counted, while if the urban-rural divide looked closer to 51-52 percentage points, I would want to wait until ~99% of the votes were counted.
