Will the urban-rural divide in U.S. presidential elections continue to grow in 2024?
closes 2024

This market resolves as YES if the gap between the Democratic margin in "large metro areas" and "rural areas," as measured by the National Election Pool/Edison Research, is at least 50.2 percentage points in 2024. Otherwise, it resolves as NO.

For reference, according to the second graph in this article, the urban-rural divide in recent American presidential elections was:

  • 19.9 percentage points (D+3 in large metros, R+16.9 in rural areas) in 2000

  • 22.3 % pts. (D+0.8, R+21.5) in 2004

  • 27.2 % pts. (D+11.7, R+15.5) in 2008

  • 31.0 % pts. (D+8.8, R+22.2) in 2012

  • 47.2 % pts. (D+11.6, R+35.6) in 2016

  • 50.1 % pts. (D+14.1, R+36) in 2020

If the 2024 presidential election is delayed, this market's closing date is delayed. If the election never occurs, this market resolves as N/A.

While this market closes on the morning of November 5 to prevent exit polls from skewing the results, it may not resolve for a week or so, as I would like to be sure that the amount of collected and aggregated electoral data is enough to draw a clear conclusion from. For example, I might resolve to YES if the urban-rural divide appears to be 60 percentage points with 95% of the national vote counted, while if the urban-rural divide looked closer to 51-52 percentage points, I would want to wait until ~99% of the votes were counted.

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