This market resolves as YES if Radiohead announces an album that is set to release on or before December 31, 2029, or if they actually release an album in that same time frame as a surprise drop. Otherwise, this market resolves as NO on January 1, 2030.

Additional context

Radiohead has been pretty inactive for a while - their most recent studio album was in 2016, and since then they've primarily focused on re-releases of older material like Kid A Mnesia and OK Computer OKNOTOK 1997 2017. Thom Yorke and Jonny Greenwood have also been busy with The Smile, which released an album in 2022 and is recording new material in 2023.

The gap between albums - seven years and counting, likely eight or more - is the longest in Radiohead's history so far, with the second-longest gap being five years (The King of Limbs (2011) --> A Moon Shaped Pool (2016).)

Fine print

Only studio albums/LPs count for the purpose of this market. That means no reissues, remasters, live albums, EPs, etc. will be considered. A live album of new material with studio overdubs (ala Rust Never Sleeps) is sufficient for YES, however.

Album delays do not matter for the purpose of this market. If they announce an album is coming in 2029, this market resolves as YES and stays resolved as YES regardless of any album delays.

If they announce that the band is breaking up, this will not resolve as NO unless I am fairly sure that the breakup is permanent.