This market resolves as YES if, before 2026, I have intentionally ingested a psychedelic substance in a therapeutic environment as part of an FDA-approved treatment plan for PTSD, depression, or another mental illness. Otherwise, it reolves as NO at midnight Mountain Time on January 1, 2026.

Background information: I have a long history of trauma that has caused me to develop several mental illnesses, including but not limited to C-PTSD, persistent depressive disorder, and at least one moderately severe dissociative disorder. Currently, scientific research is being done to understand the potential of psychedelic substances to treat disorders including but not limited to treatment-resistant depression and PTSD via increasing neuroplasticity. Initial results are promising, and progress is being made on legalizing some psychedelic substances in states like Colorado and Oregon, while the FDA may approve some psychedelic substances for use as treatments in the near future. If research suggests that psychedelic substances are effective at treating depression and traumagenic disorders like PTSD and dissociative disorders, I will probably pursue treatment with those substances as long as it is legal for me to do so. (Yeah, I know, "be gay do crimes" and all of that, but getting in trouble gives me anxiety, so...)

I might not pursue psychedelic therapy even if it's legal, however - this could be because the cost is prohibitive (I'll be making some money from being a grad school TA, but not THAT much money), because I'm concerned about the psychedelics exacerbating symptoms of my disorders (in particular, little research has been done into the effect of psychedelic substances on dissociative disorders), or for any other reason.

To resolve as YES:

• The substance must be psychedelic in nature (even midly, anything that produces noticeable psychedelic effects counts); this includes LSD, psylocibin, DMT, mescaline, MDMA, and ketamine. In the event of ambiguity over a substance's psychedelic properties or a very low dose, I will resolve based on my subjective experiences, i.e. whether or not I feel that I was "tripping" or "hallucinating" in a meaningful way after the experience. The substance can be diluted or ingested as part of something else (e.g. ayahuasca or peyote) as long as that "something else" still has psychedelic properties.

• The substance must have FDA approval (or the approval of the equivalent government organization in another country, if I'm living in a different country before 2026) to treat some form of depression, anxiety, PTSD/C-PTSD, or dissociative disorders. Even if a substance is legalized, it must be approved for medical use for this market to resolve as YES. Currently, ketamine is FDA-approved, and MDMA and psylocibin are likely to be approved at some point before 2026.

• I must willingly, intentionally ingest a therapeutic dose of the substance (via tabs/smoke/shrooms/ayahuasca/etc.) as part of a therapy session with a professional therapist who is licensed to give the substance to patients as part of therapy. For the purposes of this question, taking the substance via needle or IV also counts as "ingesting" it. The substance must be taken in a medical or clinical setting of some sort, e.g. a clinic or a therapist's office.

• Taking the substance recreationally or without a licensed, practised therapist/trip sitter present in the same room is not sufficient for this to resolve as YES.

Since this market resolves based on my own actions, I won't be betting on it at all. I also won't be posting on Manifold about pursuing psychedelic therapy until I have actually pursued it, so as not to shift the odds before resolving; i.e. if this market resolves as YES, it will do so unexpectedly at some point between May of 2023 and December 31, 2025.

I will be living in Washington state between August of 2023 and June/July of 2025, for the majority of the time this market is open. Currently, psychedelic substances are illegal in Washington, but I expect that to change at least partially before 2026. I will live close enough to the border that crossing over into BC to pursue psychedelic therapy is an option, but not one I expect to take for both logistical and financial reasons.

This market resolves as NO in the unlikely event of all psychedelic substances being illegal in the location I live or no FDA approval for any psychedelic therapy as of December 1, 2025 (I wouldn't have time to pursue therapy, given logistical issues), and N/A in the event of something happening that permanently prevents me from seeking psychedelic therapy, even if I wanted to.