NOTE: If the comment section devolves into a flame war, I reserve the right to resolve the market as N/A without prior notice. Disagreement is okay, but please don't be rude or bully others.
This market resolves as YES upon unambiguous confirmation that Penny was intentionally trans-coded. It resolves as NO upon unambiguous confirmation that Penny was NOT intentionally trans-coded.
EDIT, May 16, 2023: This market stays open until there is unambiguous confirmation in either direction, and may stay open indefinitely if no unambiguous confirmation is ever given in either direction.
Unambiguous confirmation in either direction includes:
Penny being confirmed as transgender in the game or other official material; this could resolve as YES if her dialogue in the DLC contains a reference to her being transgender (e.g. her outright saying it, her mentioning "her transition" or "HRT" or a related term), if another character outs her (hopefully with her permission), if a note written by her (or her diary etc.) contains a reference to her being transgender, if she is confirmed to be transgender in the anime/manga/TCG, or if the game's director/producer or a high-ranking executive at GameFreak, The Pokémon Company, or Nintendo confirms that Penny is transgender. For the purposes of this market, any confirmation that Penny is nonbinary counts as confirmation that she is transgender.
Penny being confirmed as cisgender in the game or other official material, using similar criteria as the above. An explicit denial of Penny being transgender from someone at GameFreak or The Pokémon Company counts as a confirmation that she is cisgender.
The game's director or producer, or a high-ranking GameFreak executive, saying that Penny was intentionally trans-coded, i.e. written and designed in such a way that the audience was meant to interpret her as at least "probably" transgender.
The game's director or producer, or a high-ranking GameFreak executive, saying that Penny was NOT intentionally trans-coded, i.e. the trans-coding of her character was unintentional. This is sufficient for a NO resolution even if said director/producer/executive later changed their mind and now sees Penny as transgender.
Official art from The Pokémon Company showing her holding a trans pride flag or wearing trans pride colors, especially if the art is posted on Trans Day of Visibility or at any point in Pride Month.
EDITED, May 16, 2023: There is evidence that suggests that Penny was intentionally trans-coded; particularly, intentionally transfem-coded. Evidence includes her being bullied/an outcast, her being very reclusive in person and much more active online, her being a computer programmer/hacker, her wearing a dysphoria hoodie, her having a Sylveon as her ace Pokémon, half of her team being male and the other half (including Sylveon) being female, her disliking speaking and implying that a single paragraph of dialogue was enough to "tire out her voice," and her dialogue while Terastallizing her Sylveon being very, very similar to the text in the Trans Day of Visibility tweet (which also included a gif of Eeveeultions and indirectly compared Pokémon evolution to being trans) from the Pokémon Company in 2020.
EDITED, May 16, 2023: This market stays open until there is unambiguous confirmation in that Penny was intentionally coded as transgender or that she was not intentionally coded as transgender. In the event that the comment section devolves into a flame war, or I otherwise feel that this market is detrimental to my mental health or the health of Manifold as a whole in any significant way, I reserve the right to resolve the market as N/A without prior notice.
Related questions
Market update, May 16 2023: Upon reflection (i.e. literal shower thoughts), I've decided to remove the subjectivity from this question and set it as a "may never resolve because we may never know the answer for sure" question, following the same concept/philosophy as my Agent 24 market.
As such, instead of eventually resolving to a PROB set by my own confidence in the answer to the question being YES, this market now does not resolve without an unambiguous confirmation or denial from GameFreak/TPC/Nintendo/etc. The closing date of 12/31/2024 is a placeholder that I'll extend by a year on December 1, 2024 and every December 1 afterwards, assuming the market has not already resolved as YES or NO.
I feel like this makes the market more fair and makes the resolution criteria simpler and clearer, while also removing subjectivity and making the market more accurate (i.e. if you don't believe the market will resolve YES or NO before 2024, it's no longer rational to buy up to 80%; it's now rational to buy and sell until the market reflects the probability you believe to be accurate). I will be betting on it, but only after a short (roughly three-day) grace period to let people adjust to the new resolution criteria. I expect that some people may sell YES shares since the market is now no longer guaranteed to resolve to PROB at the end of the year. If you've traded in this market and are upset with the change, or lost a significant amount of mana to it somehow, please let me know and we can discuss a way for me to repay any mana you lost.
@Multicore It depends; there are things that could push my belief lower or higher, including story/dialogue in DLC, ambiguous statements from the game's producers, or good-faith arguments from other fans of the series.
@Multicore Having thought more about this, you have a point; the rational strategy for making mana in this market wouldn't have produced a market that actually reflects what people think/expect. I've tweaked the resolution criteria so that the subjectivity is removed and the market will not resolve without unambiguous confirmation in either direction.