If the House holds a vote to impeach Joe Biden, will at least one Democrat vote in favor of impeachment?
9
210Ṁ309
Jan 21
7%
chance

This market resolves as YES if at least one Democrat votes to impeach Joe Biden, and NO if an impeachment vote is held but all Democrats vote against impeachment. If no impeachment vote is held during his presidency, this resolves N/A.


Additional context

Some Republicans voted in favor of impeaching Trump after January 6, 2021, so there is precedent of representatives voting in favor of impeaching a president of their own party - however, the circumstances then were quite different.


Fine print

The vote must be held while Joe Biden is the current President of the United States. This market closes on January 20, 2025, but the closing date will be extended to January 20, 2029 if Biden wins re-election.

If someone other than Joe Biden is sworn in as President and this market has not yet resolved because no impeachment vote has been held, this market resolves N/A upon the new President being sworn in.

This market only counts representatives who identify with the Democratic Party at the time of the vote. If a representative leaves the party shortly before the vote, they don't count.

"Present" counts as a vote against impeachment for the purpose of this market.

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itll probably come down to party lines

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