How many markets will I create in the week following the implementation of unlinked multiple choice markets?
6
350Ṁ461
resolved Oct 17
Resolved
27

This market resolves to the number of markets (all types) I create in the week following the implementation of unlinked multiple choice markets - i.e. multiple choice markets where the total probability does not have to add to 100%.

I can think of a lot of use cases for this type of market (and I'm excited that they're in development!) Right now, I'm sitting on a bunch of markets I'd like to make that would work best in this new system (and several that I'd like to remake in the new system at some point.) Will I have a burst of creative energy, or will I roll out these markets slowly to avoid spamming the feed? Will I be too busy with packing and moving to make many markets, if the new system is rolled out in August - or too busy with grad school, if it's rolled out in September? Will I stop asking so many questions?

Some markets I might make as unlinked multi-choice markets include (but aren't limited to):

  • If a Legend of Zelda animated movie is released by 2030, which races/species from the Zelda video game series will appear in it? (Gorons, Zora, Rito, Gerudo, Minish, Twili, etc.)

  • Which states/districts will a Democrat win in the 2024 presidential election?

  • Which states will be won by a plurality rather than a majority in the 2024 presidential election?

  • Which counties will a Democrat win in the 2024 presidential election in Colorado?

The commonality here is multiple-choice markets that, by design, can resolve to a large number of options simultaneously. While this is possible with the current system, it's more confusing from the perspective of traders, so I've held off on making several markets as a result.

The main constraint I have on market creation is time - my portfolio is large enough that I can consistently liquidate enough shares to get mana for creating markets, while still making profits on most markets I trade in. I can also buy mana if I need to, since I can afford it (though I prefer to liquidate shares where I can, instead.) Some previous markets I've made will probably get N/A'd so I can remake them in the new system, which means re-creatng them shouldn't make me run into mana issues.

I've set the lower bound to 0 (too busy to use Manifold at all, even on my phone - seems unlikely) and the upper bound to 35 (5 markets per day for a week; if I somehow make 36 or more, this market will still resolve to 35.) The preliminary closing date is the end of 2023, but this market will close as soon as I'm able to create an unlinked multiple choice market, and then resolve two weeks later.

Since I have complete control over the outcome of this market, I won't be betting on it.

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I'm way too busy to make another market at any point today, so this resolves to 27. Would have been higher if I wasn't hit with a lot of assignments and grading at once.

18 in the past (roughly) 27-28 hours.

Set the close date to the end of October - I expect it to be sooner than that, and will set it again as soon as unlinked multiple-choice markets go live.

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