Before 2030, will Nintendo announce a sequel to Tears of the Kingdom?
45
870Ṁ1572
2030
40%
chance

This market resolves as YES if, before January 1, 2030, Nintendo announces a sequel to Tears of the Kingdom. Otherwise, this market resolves as NO on January 1, 2030.

"A sequel to Tears of the Kingdom" doesn't need to be a new 3D Zelda game. It could include, but is not limited to:

  • A Hyrule Warriors title that is set after the events of Tears of the Kingdom

  • Another Zelda spinoff set after the events of Tears of the Kingdom

  • Another type of media that has a story set after the events of Tears of the Kingdom; e.g. a manga, an anime, an animated (or live-action) film, a live-action TV series, an official webcomic, etc.

The sequel does not need to be an immediate sequel, but it should be set within the lifetime of at least a few of the major characters from Tears of the Kingdom, or have another direct connection. A game or other story set in the same Hyrule a few hundred years after TOTK, featuring none of the characters from BOTW/TOTK, wouldn't count. The exception to this is if Nintendo explicitly markets the game as a "sequel to Tears of the Kingdom."

The sequel only needs to be announced - if Nintendo announces that a sequel will be released at some point in the 2030s, that's sufficient for a YES resolution.

If Nintendo ceases to exist, if they announce that there will be no more Zelda media, or something equally unlikely and weird happens, this market still resolves as NO rather than N/A.

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I would buy NO, but I feel like a new hyrule warriors is a definite possibility, and if that counts then I think the chances are higher than ~30%

predictedNO

@RyanGuill It counts as long as it's chronologically set after the events of TOTK.

To be clear, does this need to be standalone media of some sort? So a large DLC expansion to TotK that adds new postgame content would not count?

predictedNO

@NLeseul Yes, standalone media. Also, the developers have indicated that TOTK won't have DLC, unfortunately. :(

Very unlikely. They have been working on that Hyrule for 10 years now, since 2013. They will move on. But the next 3D zelda will be open world, no doubt.

predictedNO

@SpaceAge That's my thought process as well. If we do get a sequel, I'm expecting it not to be a 3D Zelda - though I still think a spinoff/manga/etc. sequel is unlikely as well.

Am I betting NO because I think it's unlikely, or as insurance? Yes.

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