This market resolves to the choice containing the number of U.S. states and territories with "shield" policies that protect access to gender-affiriming health care according to the Movement Advancement Project's "shield laws" map on December 31, 2024.
To quote MAP:
These “shield” or “refuge” laws can vary from one state to the next, but their primary goal is to protect transgender people, their families, and their medical providers against these ongoing attacks and to protect access to transgender-related health care. For example, if a person travels from a state where transgender healthcare is banned and receives that care in another state, a "shield" law can protect the recipient and/or provider of that healthcare against civil or criminal charges from the state where healthcare is banned.
While the map is titled "shield laws," executive orders that have the same effect as shield laws count for the purpose of this market. As of September 2023, eleven states (CA, CO, CT, IL, MA, MN, NM, NY, OR, VT, WA) and D.C. have shield laws, while three states (AZ*, MD, NJ) have executive orders accomplishing the same thing. This means there are fifteen states and territories with shield policies, which contain roughly 43% of the trans population in the United States.
*Arizona banned surgical trans healthcare for minors in 2022, but the governor has issued an executive order that protects access to the trans healthcare that's still legal in the state.
Since I want this to be at least a little bit of a prediction market and not a "check the website on December 31 and just bet it to that number" market, this market will close on December 1, 2024 and will not resolve until the end of the month. I will check the website - or, if the website no longer exists, a similar website - at some point on December 31, 2024 and resolve this market to the total number of states and territories displayed as having shield laws/executive orders.
If the United States ceases to exist before December 31, 2024, this market resolves as N/A.