This market resolves based on the results of the next survey that has detailed enough questions about gender that this market can resolve when the survey's results are publicly known.

Complicated wording, but necessary. This market will only resolve when a survey is released that allows participants to pick from (at least) the following options for their gender:

• Cis man

• Trans man

• Cis woman

• Trans woman

• Nonbinary

Other options can be included on the survey - I'll count options like "agender" and "genderfluid" as "nonbinary," and any responses for "other" as "a secret sixth thing."

This can also be accomplished by allowing survey respondents to pick from man, woman, and nonbinary, and then allowing them to choose whether they identify as cis or trans in some way ("Are you trans? [Yes] [No]" or a similarly simple question is sufficient.)

(For the purposes of this market, boys is interchangeable with men and girls is interchangeable with women; i.e. the age of the respondents does not matter.)