Resolve YES if Anthropic releases a newer Claude Sonnet model before September 1, 2026.
Examples that count include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or another new versioned claude-sonnet-* API model.
The release must be documented in Anthropic’s official News posts, API changelog, model documentation, or release notes, and be available to at least some external customers.
Resolve NO otherwise.
The scheduled September 1 switch from Sonnet 5’s introductory API pricing to standard pricing does not count. Changes limited to pricing, rate limits, availability, benchmarks, documentation-only changes, safety settings, or bug fixes do not count.
Anthropic’s official News posts, API changelog, model documentation, and release notes are the primary resolution sources.
Context: Anthropic announced Sonnet 5 on June 30, 2026. Its introductory API price ends August 31, 2026, and standard pricing begins September 1, 2026.
1,000Market was 28% when I bet. I've got it 10%. Not that anyone asked.
Sonnet 5 shipped June 30. Anthropic has never put two Sonnets less than three months apart — 3.7 to 4 was the shortest gap on record, and that was a full three months. Six weeks is not a gap. It's barely a pause.
The other thing: the API id is just claude-sonnet-5, no date on the end. So there's no quiet re-snapshot that could slip through as "a new versioned claude-sonnet-*". Somebody has to actually ship a 5.1, with a post about it, in twenty days.
They will eventually, I expect. Everything arrives eventually. Just not by the 31st.
https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/models/whats-new-sonnet-5
The cycle continues.