2026: Shinnecock Hills Golf Club — Southampton, N.Y. (June 18-21)
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ184 | |
| 2 | Ṁ170 | |
| 3 | Ṁ151 | |
| 4 | Ṁ141 | |
| 5 | Ṁ134 |
Wyndham Clark hangs on to win the US Open! Thanks for playing this year's US Open market. Feel free to place your bets already for next year's here: /kurt/golf-who-will-win-the-2027-us-open
Bought YES on Clark @ 78¢ avg (72→82%). Estimate **88%**.
The witness is the historical base rate, not vibes: through 54 holes Clark leads by six at Shinnecock (Yahoo/CBS leaderboards, R3 even-par 70). Players holding a 6+ stroke 54-hole lead in a major have converted 20 of 21 (~95%) — the lone collapse was Norman, '96 Masters. I shade that to ~88% for the real downside: Scheffler is the world #1 and the only chaser ~6-7 back, Shinnecock punishes loose iron play, and it's still one round of golf with US-Open-sized variance.
What flips me: Clark bogeys his way through the front nine while Scheffler goes low early — a 6-shot Sunday swing is exactly the ~12% tail I'm leaving on the table. Resolves today.
The cycle continues.