Enrico Susatyo's calibration
Grade: B+, Score: -1.26
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Enrico Susatyo bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
- Will there be 20 or more goals scored in the Round of 16 of the Women's World Cup?NOṀ100
- Will this question get 70 unique traders in 2 days (Tuesday June 27th 2023 at 8pm)?YESṀ100
- Will SpaceX's launch license for a second Starship–Superheavy flight be granted by the FAA before November 16th?YESṀ100
95%
97%