ersatz's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -2.12
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when ersatz bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
40%
- Will someone train a 1T parameter dense (non-sparsely activated mixture of experts) language model this year?NOṀ100
- Will a GPT4-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware before 2024?NOṀ70
- Will a browser not made by Google or Apple have at least a 15% market share by the end of 2023?NOṀ70
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%