Bounty market
This market is bounty-tiered (PLEASE LEAVE A COMMENT UNDER YOUR ANSWER SO I CAN TIP IT):
At least M$ 50 for a hypothesis I have not yet considered
At least M$ 100 for any test and experiments I make
At least M$ 250 for any good ideas (and up for very good ideas)
I am more likely to test things that are expected to work : Testing is costly and stopping the potatoes mean I am way less efficient. So I would much rather do a positive test "will X also induce productivity/hypomania" than negative one "let's try to remove X and see if it still works". However, I will try to ensure that answers I choose are correct to the best of my abilities, so if it really worked so far, I will do some negative testing around it.
This market resolves to the credence I have of each explanations, weighted by points. Note that my question is along the line of "how can I reproduce this", so feel free to answer that instead (ie. I don't need to know why it works exactly, I just want to know what an optimized solution looks like. Might change the title to reflect this better)
This market is intended to be primarilly incentivized through its bounties. I will be completely transparent about the points I intend to give to each options at any given time.
Context
Reviewing the data of the past two/three months, it seems clear to me that the potato diet has had a drastic impact on me: On it, I was working daily without any problems, focusing seemed fun, and I was making progress drastically. Three weeks after the diet, this gradually fell down until I was back to the baseline before it.
I've been experimenting with taking potatoes again on and off since and the effect seems very clear: Whenever I eat only potatoes, five days later the stream of energy is fully on and I can work without any interruptions.
I would like to understand what is going on, and more importantly: How to optimize this.
Personal data
You can find my original potato diet data here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QHaPRoYcSqfkfYCKY2k2c-uRQK1jbgJJN5PhFcFxdvQ/
I will update my state and findings in the following document: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bqSJYXDIAoGcl1ARvCH8Be4G-lubtA0UQdfXaXLgGwo/
Key points:
Eaten only potatoes in chips for 12 days, nothing
Eaten potatoes boiled with their peels and peeled off: 5 days after the full effect had started to kick in
This effect has been reproduced since
One month of the potato diet -> 3 weeks to die down. 5 days of the potato diet -> 4 days to die down.
Currently experimenting with starch
Early data, but focusing on it, it seems like the rush of productivity comes ~2 hours after eating potatoes, and last for about 2 as well. This is slightly confounded by other experiments and I will
General data
I've compiled all sources I've found here: https://whatisthis.world/potatoes/
For now, it contains all sources mentionned by https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5266211/pdf/pone.0169277.pdf which argues that Few Foods Diet has a high impact on ADHD symptoms (More on that in hypothesis), as well as all SMTM reports.
I will update it as I find more sources of information.
Hypotheses
Probably not replacement effect/avoiding a specific type of food: The diet did not kick in while I was eating the potatoes in chips (or it was a replacement effect for sugar and they generated some through Maillard? Or garlic, but that seems unlikely)
Probably not placebo (or it needs to be way more specific): The effect occurs without me thinking about it at all and is very gradual. In fact, I was convinced that it was my new technics and methods that were working while on the diet. It might be something about routine, though that seems unlikely (I was still having a similar routine off-diet)
Probably not Few Foods Diet? All diets in https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5266211/pdf/pone.0169277.pdf include potatoes, so it is hard to gauge. But so far, it seems that it is the addition of potatoes that is having an effect on me.
Starches? It could make sense, since cut in slices and in the oven, it would react and transform. I've tried eating some starch cooked, doesn't seem to have any effect. Taken a little bit raw, but haven't established the potato baseline enough to notice anything. A little unlikely for now, but not ruled out at all
Something that has to do with the peels of the potatoes? I boil them in the water, so maybe there's something there
Solanine? This feels dangerous for me to try, and so is low-priority at the moment.
Potassium hyperconcentration? I might try potassium supplements, but this seems apriori unlikely?
Betting policy
I will not be betting on this market (I might buy and sell M$1 to bump, or buy M$ 1 to add an answer)
Close date updated to 2022-11-07 12:39 am
Related questions
I'm very sorry for having disappeared like that this year. I also realize it was non-sensical to close the market suddenly like that.
I intend to write a lesswrong post on this soonish (want to compile research papers, tests are mostly done besides potassium. Might just test potassium supplementation tomorrow to see if it's the same as when I take potatoes on chromium yeast), but basically I am pretty certain that this all has to do with insulin regulation and insulin sensitivity (I tested intranasal insulin for instance, which did give similar effects). Done some variations on the potato diet that did not replicate, like taking it with a lot of lemon juice, which seems to point to the fact that it is not solely a specific element of the potato but rather a metabolic shift that is induced by them, and the manic effect are produced by this shift.
Right now, I am on chromium yeast just before sleeping, and it seems to work quite well, though it tends to also wake me up sometimes. I will have to see how to better solve this, but for now focus has been great for ~2-3 weeks.
About the resolution of this market
===
Potassium
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I did not directly test potassium yet. It is known to be linked to insulin, and though the potassium survey of SMTM does not show increase in focus (many mentions of foggyness), I have found some mentions of the same (hypo)manic symptoms that I encountered on a high-potassium diet. I think it's quite possible that a too-high potassium level causes a metabolic switch, like the keto-diet does, which in terms impact my insulin sensitivity/responsiveness/...?
Triggering foods
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Triggering foods also seem abundant (especially when I was on chromium picolinate), though now that I switched to chromium yeast this seems more stable. I got consistent weird reactions when eating potatoes on chromium picolinate, even when eating other things in parallel, which to me might point to the fact that a half-tato diet would also work. That said, this one is still very instrumental
For now, I think I should check tomorrow that potassium also provoke weird reactions, and if it does, resolve 50% potassium 50% trigger, if it does not 20% potassium 80% trigger?
Because of my being absent for a year, which I want to appologize for again, I will wait for at least a day (or more if people asks for it) before resolving, in case people do not feel this is fair. I can also reopen this market if this would make more sense
Thanks again for your inputs!
@RobinGreen Hi there, I was absent from Manifold this year. I was about to resolve this market (I am resolving my derelict markets), but I am interested in your theory, do you mean that potatoes have high GABA content? I think there were some experiments I did this year that do not fit.
I think I've made this thread linger for way too long, so I'll resolve this tomorrow if you do not answer, but do let me know if you feel I should do it differently
Also gave you a bounty for mentionning GABA, though sadly the new Manifold interface does not allow me to prove that pubically :(
@RobinGreen I am also interested, do you have an experience with the potato diet and/or GABA that you would be comfortable sharing? Or something that makes you think it is obviously GABA?
@epiphanie_gedeon I was on the half-potato diet, which made me tired and gave me brain fog. I have figured out a theory for why this occurred. Potatoes contain significant amounts of both vitamin B6 and l-glutamine. When taken individually as supplements, these have one effect, but when taken together, either in supplements or in food or in both, they react together inside the body and (together with zinc, which is present in potatoes and l-taurine, which is not) produce GABA, a neurotransmitter which is involved in the sensation of being drunk, among other things. GABA has complicated effects on the brain but one of its possible effects is tiredness. Perhaps it had a very different effect on you though!
@RobinGreen That is a very involved and interesting theory, will have to read more about this, and especially the link between GABA and ADHD, thanks! It does seem more complex than just "potatoes have a lot of potassium" and "the potassium supplementation test showed many people had signs of fatigue"? Another point that I find weird is that almost no one on the full potato diet were feeling tired, which I think your theory would predict?
Thank you again very much for bringing it up, I will have to read more about it tomorrow!
@RobinGreen That part I would not be surprised about. I think a core feature of ADHD-ness is responding weirdly/differently to nootropics
@epiphanie_gedeon OK, it may be relevant that I was supplementing with both l-glutamine (1g/day) and vitamin B6 (and other B vitamins) so I may have got more of one critical ingredient than most people on the potato diet did, which may explain why the effects on me were different despite me having a "lower dose" of potatoes (one meal a day rather than three). This is intriguing!
@RobinGreen Ah I see (missed the notification somehow)!
Still, seeing how extermely differently I react to potassium supplementation under chromium, and seeing how the potassium trial of SMTM seem to have experiences very similar to yours, I would be surprised if potassium wasn't a key factor in all this (that reacts differently in presence of other nutrients).
(Along with this potato+something hypothesis, my own experience is that it was very different during full-potatoes and after)
One thing I need to do now is to check the reports of people who felt tired under halftato and potassium, and see if one type of nutrient comes back frequently (maybe l-glutamin or B vitamin, will check for that. I don't think it changed a lot for me when I was under B12, but need to recheck my notes).
For now, I think you would not have felt this way under full-potatoes without those supplements. I will update after checking out the reports, I really think there is something to be found there.
Thanks a lot for your answers, they were very enlightning!
I am becoming very sure of what is happening (though I don't know the technic details), I think I would bet 90% on my current hypothesis, and it feels a cautious bet
I have a specific test I want to perform first, though, so will do and will let you know.
Might also try a little more to rule out that potassium is not the driving factor for instance, and to determine the difference between starch and resistant starch.
Am excited!
I had a similar experience with the potato diet, but not with sole potassium supplementation. Relevantly, though, I also had this experience at various times when I have eaten a low sugar, low caloric density diet even if it’s had no potatoes at all — lots of whole grains and simple vegetables. I feel more clear-headed and energetic and less hungry. I’m not sure how to phrase this idea as a hypothesis for you to test, but thought it might be useful.
@njmkw Thanks! You might want to bet that in
By suggesting i eat a low sugar, low calories diet :)
(Or suggesting it is because of the high glycemic index of potatoes)
I've tried doing that, and noticed no effects, though it may be because I didn't keep at it long enough
Also, I am starting to have a pretty clear theory of what is happening, but have yet to test it. I will write an update on my advances and early hypotheses tomorrow or today I think
Thanks again for your comment and updates!
Another sister market asking the question I'm realizing is most important to me: What will work?
https://manifold.markets/JoyVoid/bounty-market-what-modification-to
https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/resistant-starch-101
Elicit gives plenty of results for "does resistant starch help lower glucose level?" also.
https://diabetesaction.org/article-vinegar
So, at this point, I'm wondering if what works for me is whatever helps absorb glucose, as I've mentionned before. Apparently, resistant starch can help with that, which could explain both why the potato diet eventually works, and why it's so slow to kick in. It would also explain why vinegar works well for me and why my rice+starch worked, but heating it too much did not.
What is weird for me though is that I do not seem to be diabetic? I got a 79 mg/dL after fasting 12 hours (one-shot home glucose test).
Though the researches I've linked in the market's description do say that it's common for ADHD people to be triggered by sugar/chocolate and that getting rid of it works best.
What is weird is that low glycemic index food do not seem to do the trick. It may be that sugar lingers long in the body, after all it takes 5 days on the potato diet for the effect to kick in. So maybe sugar and the raw potato starch helps by directly getting rid of it? That's a promising track.
I should look more into what kind of food is known to absorb sugar/stimulate an insulin response.
Well, that's progress! I'll be sure to ask my doctor also.