Enaz's calibration
Grade: C+, Score: -4.94
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Enaz bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
5%
10%
- Will China initiate an offensive military operation against Taiwan by the end of April?NOṀ25
- Will there be an equal amount of YES and NO holders on this market?NOṀ10
- Will we have evidence that SBF and Caroline became romantically involved after she handed him over to the feds by the date the SBF biography written by Michael Lewis is published?NOṀ10
20%
30%
40%
50%
- Will Biden's classified documents be largely forgotten in 3 months? (on April 14)YESṀ30
- Will Trump be charged by the DoJ by the end of 2022 for crimes related to removing documents from the White House to his home Mar-a-Lago? NOṀ30
- Will half of Proof School students use Manifold Markets by the end of the school year?YESṀ25
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%