Background: I am taking a trip to the east coast and planning on taking the Acela to and from New York. I have two first class upgrade coupons that I am planning on using.

My first train is the 11:43 from Providence (PVD) to New York (NYP) on Friday, April 5th. My second train is a 10:02 train from New York (NYP) to Boston South (BOS) on Monday, the 8th.

The way that upgrades work is as follows: you can apply the coupon 12 hours before departure (I am planning on applying it exactly 12 hours before) and if there are spaces in first class, then you are upgraded.

A choice resolves YES if I successfully upgrade to first class for that trip. Basically, you’re betting on whether there will be space available in first as of 12 hours before departure.