Will the US 2024 Presidential Election be considered a landslide victory for whoever is the winner? πŸ—½πŸ¦…πŸ”₯πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
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Can't seem to find a precise definition of "landslide" so I'm currently going with:

  • Mentioned as such by multiple neutral & fact-based news media publications

I'm open to alternative measures of "landslide" if they can be justified as more accurate

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Would you say Obama '12 was a landslide (332-206)?, Tipping Point Margin: CO - 5.4%, Popular: +3.9%

Obama '08 was definitely a landslide (365-173), Tipping Point Margin: CO - 9.0%, Popular: +7.3%

imo last 4 elections by closeness

  1. '08 Obama - clearly

  2. '12 Obama - by EVs and Tipping Point

  3. '20 Biden - 2nd by popular vote, 4th by tipping pt

  4. '16 Trump - lost popular vote, bigger tipping pt than Biden '20

I think Obama '12 just misses the cut for landslide since the EVs weren't high enough (is 339-199, 344-194, or 350-188 high enough?) and 3.9% popular vote wasn't high enough.

I think I'll bet no since Biden probably won't outperform 2020 and Trump has no shot of a landslide (popular vote won't be Trump +5, doubt he gets more than 340 EVs, and tipping points should be within 5)

The definition on 538 is that the winning candidate receives at least 350 electoral votes: Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? | FiveThirtyEight.

I've created a market based on that definition here: Will the 2024 US presidential election be a landslide in the Electoral College? | Manifold.

I mean, you could declare what your own definition of "landslide" is and run with it. I imagine that, if you don't, somebody will comment any cherry picked news source after election day with the words "Landslide Victory" in the headline and ask you to resolve YES.

Or is it in the spirit of this market to base it more on how we colloquially use the term in the news?

@Quroe

Yep, that was my concern as well, which is why I mention:

Mentioned as such by multiple neutral & fact-based news media publications

I'm no expert, but from my understanding 'landslide' can have a number of dimensions (Electoral College, Popular Vote % etc.) so I figured it would be better to outsource the definition to a number of neutral sources as it seems like one of those "we know it when we see it" sort of things.

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