I will resolve NO as soon as he announces that he won't participate. Otherwise, I will resolve YES the day the Tour starts.
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Why are we so high on this one? His trainer said recently it's 50% he makes it. Visma can see his power output and will know if he will be close to the same level as last year. Otherwise, they can send Kuss (hoping he improves) and Jorgeson (on top form) for GC, and WvA and Kooij for stages.
BTW I put some money on Jorgeson for the main TdF market, it's not impossible that Jonas doesn't go, we see Remco as fighting for the yellow then dropping and hunting stages, Roglic crashes, and what if Pogi hasn't recovered, gets sick or crashes?
I bought Yes at 73% a couple weeks ago. I also bought Yes at 70% and 57%, as soon as it was obvious he was riding his bike again. I think Visma is internally in a complete state of panic/frustration and will pick Jonas if he is even anywhere CLOSE to the level of a WT cyclist. If they think he can finish the race, he'll go.
HLN reported that he is likely part of the tour team, https://www.hln.be/wielrennen/simon-yates-op-weg-naar-visma-lease-a-bike-ondertussen-krijgt-tour-ploeg-extra-vorm~ac7a7c35/.
More importantly, his injuries are not really that fatal for his tour form, see Steff Cras last week in Slovenia who suffered spinal injuries from the same crash (worse than anything Vingegaard suffered).
The Tour is also pretty backloaded this year and he showed last year in the Vuelta that he can start in mediocre form and still end up the best climber in the third week.
@NicoDelon for whom? WvA to win stages, I don't think he needs support. Uijtdebroeks will be too tired from Giro to be a realistic option. So that leaves us with GC-Kuss!