@egroj Could you resolve please? https://www.letour.fr/en/rankings/stage-1

(In case anyone is wondering about recent market movement from the ~80% range to ~95%, the team announced he plans to start the TDF)

Why are we so high on this one? His trainer said recently it's 50% he makes it. Visma can see his power output and will know if he will be close to the same level as last year. Otherwise, they can send Kuss (hoping he improves) and Jorgeson (on top form) for GC, and WvA and Kooij for stages.

BTW I put some money on Jorgeson for the main TdF market, it's not impossible that Jonas doesn't go, we see Remco as fighting for the yellow then dropping and hunting stages, Roglic crashes, and what if Pogi hasn't recovered, gets sick or crashes?

I bought Yes at 73% a couple weeks ago. I also bought Yes at 70% and 57%, as soon as it was obvious he was riding his bike again. I think Visma is internally in a complete state of panic/frustration and will pick Jonas if he is even anywhere CLOSE to the level of a WT cyclist. If they think he can finish the race, he'll go.

(Having some shares in Jorgenson winning is not unreasonable.)

Remember last year when Roglic did NOT start the TDF because they were so, so confident that they literally did not need to bring one of the best cyclists in the world? This feels like the exact opposite. Just the vibe I'm getting. I have no idea what news reports are saying in NL/BE, etc.

HLN reported that he is likely part of the tour team, https://www.hln.be/wielrennen/simon-yates-op-weg-naar-visma-lease-a-bike-ondertussen-krijgt-tour-ploeg-extra-vorm~ac7a7c35/.

More importantly, his injuries are not really that fatal for his tour form, see Steff Cras last week in Slovenia who suffered spinal injuries from the same crash (worse than anything Vingegaard suffered).

The Tour is also pretty backloaded this year and he showed last year in the Vuelta that he can start in mediocre form and still end up the best climber in the third week.

At this point I think the management of Visma will be frantic enough that they will strongly encourage him to start even if he isn't in the best form.

@NicoDelon have you heard any news?

Nearly zero info here: https://x.com/vismaleaseabike/status/1780205865288585610

@JCE No news sounds like bad news in this case…

@NicoDelon Agreed

I don't think he will start if he is not in shape to win it.

@Eliza Hmm. Even as support (like Roglic did)?

@NicoDelon for whom? WvA to win stages, I don't think he needs support. Uijtdebroeks will be too tired from Giro to be a realistic option. So that leaves us with GC-Kuss!

@egroj Heck yeah?

@NicoDelon Ever since they chose to NOT have Roglic start the 2023 TDF..... 🤣