eclair4151's calibration
Grade: A, Score: -0.28
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when eclair4151 bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
- NFL: Will the Kansas City Chiefs have a better 2023 season than the Philadelphia Eagles?YESṀ300
- Will there be a version of Apple Vision Pro that costs more than $3499 by the time we can order one?YESṀ300
- NFL: Will the Kansas City Chiefs have a better 2023 season than the Philadelphia Eagles?YESṀ250
80%
90%
95%
97%